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You will lose this bet


BehindTheMask

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Okay, I want to play a game with YCM.

 

You and I wanted to bet money. We don't have a pack of cards...so we decide to flip a fair coin.

 

I decide that you will flip the coin, and call it out, mid flip. You agree.

 

If you are wrong, I win the pot.

If you are right, You win the pot.

 

To make sure it is a fair, you take a random coin out of your pocket.

 

You flip it 10 times. All 10 times it was "TAILS."

 

I exclaim "THAT ISN'T FAIR, YOU WILL JUST CALL TAILS ALL THE TIME."

 

You say "It's not. What will you wager."

 

Dejectedly, I say "100 dollars, I can't afford not too." You put in 100 dollars as well.

 

You smile, and flip the coin. Mid-air, you shout "________."

 

I laugh, knowing that you made 1 big mistake.

 

Well, YCM, what do you choose?

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Tails.

 

Its probably a double sided coin.

 

It is a FAIR coin' date=' meaning it has an equal chance of being either "HEADS" or "TAILS."

 

What type of coin am I flipping?

 

A Fair one.

 

Then I call tails because 10/10 previous times it landed tails. I mean there's still a 50/50 chance, but... eh...

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What's the mistake? That we trusted you?

 

The mistake is....In your choice that you make.

 

There are seemingly 4 outcomes...but there is only 2. You pick heads...or you pick tails.

 

This is the point of the topic.

 

Which do you pick...and why?

 

ahh i cant get it its like staring me in the face and i cant get it

wait i i didnt make a mistake !

 

See Above.

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Heads.

 

Before I flipped the coin, I had placed it on my thumb tail side up. If tails is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land tails up. The chance of it landing tails is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

lolmathematics

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Heads.

 

Before I flipped the coin' date=' I had placed it on my thumb tail side up. If tails is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land tails up. The chance of it landing tails is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

lolmathematics

[/quote']

 

Interesting.

 

Heads.

 

Why?

 

HINT:

 

Think about the odds of a fair coin. This is a psychology problem.

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