You will lose this bet

[Nishi-chan]

I call heads. You laugh at my mistake because you know it will obviously be tails.

amirite?

[Eury]

Well the odds are 50/50. Unless you take into account the weight distribution of the coin. The tails side is heavier than the heads side. Or is it vice-versa....Gah.

 

Fair coin = 50/50

 

You answer was interesting' date=' because your answer was opposite of your logic.

[/quote']

 

If I understand what you're saying...which I probably don't and horribly mistranslated.

 

Tails.

 

Before I flipped the coin, I had placed it on my thumb head side up. If heads is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land heads up. The chance of it landing heads is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

Give it to me straight doc, I'm officially retarded now right?

[BehindTheMask]

Well the odds are 50/50. Unless you take into account the weight distribution of the coin. The tails side is heavier than the heads side. Or is it vice-versa....Gah.

 

Fair coin = 50/50

 

You answer was interesting' date=' because your answer was opposite of your logic.

[/quote']

 

If I understand what you're saying...which I probably don't and horribly mistranslated.

 

Tails.

 

Before I flipped the coin, I had placed it on my thumb head side up. If heads is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land heads up. The chance of it landing heads is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

Give it to me straight doc, I'm officially retarded now right?

 

You aren't retarded.

 

I will tell YCM the answer now though.

 

What I described.....is the GAMBLER'S FALLACY.

 

For example' date=' if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[1'] Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due. This is an informal fallacy. It is also known colloquially as the law of averages.

 

You lost, if you had used any previous trials to determine what to guess.

 

Wasn't this a fun experiment?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[~Shore]

My mistake is that I am making a bet over the internet, therefor there is no way to prove that it is a fair flip. Since you are the thread creator, you can pick the result, as you have told the story thus far, therefor, I cannot win, because no coin will be tossed, the outcome will be determined by you and you alone, hence the title "you will lose this bet". However, you have made a fatal error as well- by basing the bet on the internet, there is nothing for me to lose, because I simply may choose not to bet, others may choose to ignore the thread. Therefor, in the end

I

think

I

might

have

just

won

the

game

but

I

may

be

wrong.

 

Have at you!

[Eury]

Well the odds are 50/50. Unless you take into account the weight distribution of the coin. The tails side is heavier than the heads side. Or is it vice-versa....Gah.

 

Fair coin = 50/50

 

You answer was interesting' date=' because your answer was opposite of your logic.

[/quote']

 

If I understand what you're saying...which I probably don't and horribly mistranslated.

 

Tails.

 

Before I flipped the coin, I had placed it on my thumb head side up. If heads is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land heads up. The chance of it landing heads is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

Give it to me straight doc, I'm officially retarded now right?

 

You aren't retarded.

 

I will tell YCM the answer now though.

 

What I described.....is the GAMBLER'S FALLACY.

 

For example' date=' if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[1'] Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due. This is an informal fallacy. It is also known colloquially as the law of averages.

 

You lost, if you had used any previous trials to determine what to guess.

 

Wasn't this a fun experiment?

 

SON OF A-

 

I just got done reading that exact paragraph on lolwiki and was about to post it. :cry:

[Willieh]

Well the odds are 50/50. Unless you take into account the weight distribution of the coin. The tails side is heavier than the heads side. Or is it vice-versa....Gah.

 

Fair coin = 50/50

 

You answer was interesting' date=' because your answer was opposite of your logic.

[/quote']

 

If I understand what you're saying...which I probably don't and horribly mistranslated.

 

Tails.

 

Before I flipped the coin, I had placed it on my thumb head side up. If heads is facing up when the coin is perched on my thumb, it is more likely to land heads up. The chance of it landing heads is now 51-60%. You laugh because you have a higher chance of winning than I.

 

Give it to me straight doc, I'm officially retarded now right?

 

You aren't retarded.

 

I will tell YCM the answer now though.

 

What I described.....is the GAMBLER'S FALLACY.

 

For example' date=' if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[1'] Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due. This is an informal fallacy. It is also known colloquially as the law of averages.

 

You lost, if you had used any previous trials to determine what to guess.

 

Wasn't this a fun experiment?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

 

Um... That doesn't mean we lost... It could have landed tails... =\

[~Shore]

It doesn't matter what the math is. Some people have called heads, some people have called tails, however, it's futile, because BehindTheMask can make up whatever circumstances he wants in order to have us lose.

[Tempest Dahlia]

Well this was easy...

Basically, no matter ho many tails you get the odds are still 50/50.

 

Most of us knew that already.

 

tbh l didn't think THAT would be the answer seeing as it was very obvious. l just picked tails because it seemed to be lucky. (But even if l picked heads l had a fair shot.)

[Blue Lightning]

Tails cause I saw it in 21

[CrabHelmet]

And then BehindTheMask laughed at everyone else because he cunningly manipulated his way into getting a 50% chance of winning a game of flipping a coin.

 

And then everyone else laughed at BehindTheMask because they all managed to get a 50% chance of winning a game of flipping a coin without making a topic about it and acting like it was a huge instant-win accomplishment.

 

Oh, and incidentally, the correct call is "Tails". See, in the story, we don't have the Word Of God information that the coin is fair, so it makes perfect sense for our character to call "Tails", as the trials make it extremely probable that the coin is not fair, and we have no absolute assurance in-universe that it is in fact fair. Given the information to which our character had access, he should have called "Tails".

[Blue Lightning]

See? I knew it was tails.

[Niño]

[align=center]

Since the coin is fair, each flip has an equal chance of coming up heads or tails, so all 16 possible outcomes tabulated above are equally probable. But since there are 6 ways to get 2 heads, in four flips the probability of two heads is greater than that of any other result. We express probability as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of zero is a result which cannot ever occur: the probability of getting five heads in four flips is zero. A probability of one represents certainty: if you flip a coin, the probability you'll get heads or tails is one (assuming it can't land on the rim, fall into a black hole, or some such).

 

Copypasta from google ftw!.[/align]

[Dark]

There isn't a right answer. :/

 

It's still a 50/50 chance.

 

But I'll assume you expected us to say heads.

 

EDIT: To explain the last part of my post, I'm assuming that because, most people would think that since it landed on tails a lot of times, the probability changed so it's in favor of heads.

 

BUT IT'S NOT DOHOHOHOHO.

[Dweller of Parables]

A game of Chance and Dice > Coin toss