A Mathematical Chance Question ~ Price Added ~ Warhammer Players DEFINITELY LOOK

[Jerry OldMaster]

Okay, this is the situation.

 

I'm a good Warhammer player, and sometimes I want to calculate the chances of my models wounding other models (warhammer players will understand this fully.)

However you don't need to understand it, it goes like this:

Now, if you hit on a 4+ (50% chance), and wound on a 5+ (33% chance), and assuming your foe has no armour saves, the odd goes like 0.5 x 0.33 = 0.167, right? So a 16.7% percent chance of wounding in one attack.

 

Now I want to know how the calculate this case: re-rolls. What is the chance of hitting on a 4+ (50%, get it now. It's with a DICE.), if you may re-roll if you miss? So, like you roll a 2 and miss, but you still can re-roll the dice and therefore you still can make the attack hit.

 

I want to know how to calculate that properly.

 

Also, what if a special item makes me do the opposite: re-rolling hits? So I roll a 6, but MUST re-roll again? I think that's just another wall of 50% (same situation), but I'm not sure.

 

Those who are not good at maths, don't even TRY to help :) :lol: jk

 

My reward for the one who will help me with this will be 3 reps.

Thanks in advance.

[CrazyKev]

uh, is this for homework?

[Jerry OldMaster]

Warhammer?

Erm.... no XD

[Jerry OldMaster]

Svdp.

 

No mathematics outta her? I'm disappointed. :(

[Bloodrun]

omg its math ahh!!

i mean i can rate, i can add

but i cant do math lol

doesnt war hammer have its own built in stats thingy mujigger?

[Jerry OldMaster]

omg its math ahh!!

i mean i can rate' date=' i can add

but i cant do math lol

doesnt war hammer have its own built in stats thingy [b']mujigger[/b]?

 

LOL sorry, I thought you could solve it XD

 

i have no clue about the bolded word, explain the sentence plz/

[Instinct]

is this a word problem? could you tell me the equation?

[Bloodrun]

omg its math ahh!!

i mean i can rate' date=' i can add

but i cant do math lol

doesnt war hammer have its own built in stats thingy [b']mujigger[/b]?

 

LOL sorry, I thought you could solve it XD

 

i have no clue about the bolded word, explain the sentence plz/

 

lol ok my parents have these old sayings and what not

and they use to that word when couldnt think of the word they were explning

ok here

say we were talking about your ps2

and i wanted to tell you to bring your ps2 over here, but i coulndt think of what it was, (brain fart)

so i would say

bring your thing a mujigger over

:lol:

[Jerry OldMaster]

Not really.

 

Okay, I explain again.

 

For not-Warhammers, Warhammer is a tabletop game, a war game, where many miniatures fight against each other, be that tough Orcs, wise Elves, hardy Dwarfs, or brave Men. My issue is a mathematical problem, and goes about a model killing another model in one attack.

 

To slay a model, you normally need to roll three times. One for did the attack hit or not, the second time for checking, was the hit strong enough to slay a model, and last, the attaced model could have some armour that could block the blow.

For each of those you need to roll a die, and if an attack passed all such tests, the model is slain. So i want to be able to CALCULATE the chances of doing so.

Let's see. if I hit a model on a roll of 4+ (what is 50% of the time), and wound (second test) also on a 4, nd I surpss his armour again on 4+, then my chances will be 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 =12.5%, right?

What means that one of the 8 attacks will kil a foe :)

 

Once you got that, read the rest of my post :)

[JerryFreelance]

So here's your question

 

You get a 2

Re-roll

 

You need to calculate the chance of getting a 4+? Or is your question what are the odds that you roll a 4+ in two rolls?

 

For the first one, you already know it: 50%

 

But for the second one, you need to roll a 4+ in two rolls.

 

So you have

 

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

 

So there's 50% in the first roll

and 50% in the second roll.

 

But if you get a 4+ in the first roll, you don't need a second roll. So there's a 50% chance that you don't need to re-roll. But under the assumption that you must re-roll, you have a 50% chance of hitting the re-roll. So you missed the first 50%, and you can hit the second roll on 50%.

 

So, here are the statistics:

 

First roll hit: 50%

First roll miss: 50%

Second roll hit: 50%

Second roll miss: 50%

First roll miss and second roll hit: 75% [because 50%*50%=25%. 100-25% = 75]

First roll miss and second roll miss: 25%

 

Does that answer your question?

[Jerry OldMaster]

Almost!

 

So, the complete chance of passing the to hit test (so if you can re-roll) would be 75%, right?

 

Thanks Zyzzyx, but I just want to check it out for other things.

 

like, what if yo need a roll of 5+?

 

Would be 33% chance to hit, 66% chance to miss each time, so...

 

First roll hit: 33%

First roll miss: 66%

Second roll hit: 33%

Second roll miss: 66%

First roll miss or second roll miss (calculating that one first) is 44%

So my chances must be 100-44 = 56%, right?

 

 

YAY THANKS.

 

*looks at usertitle* You still want the reps? XD

[JerryFreelance]

Yeah sure I'll take 'em lol

 

I should probably take that usertitle down [i just got negged for that]

 

And yes, you're correct. :]

[mikeybo1]

you need funking LIVES