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A Serious Business Riddle.


Catterjune

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Guest PikaPerson01

Supposing you have single bacteria in a bottle, and every minute this bacteria splits in half - essentially doubling itself. Now suppose it takes an hour for the bottle to be completely full of this bacteria. At 11am there is 1 bacteria and at 12 noon the bottle is completely full.

 

At what time is the bottle half full?

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Guest PikaPerson01

11:59

 

Correct. Neither of the bacteria will realize this problem until, literally, the very last minute. Now... translating this simple arithmetic analogy into something like population growth or oil use...

 

We may however propose another question. Suppose the bacteria go on a legendary trip, and find 3 new bottles, essentially quadrupling the amount of resources they have ever known. At what time will they fill the fourth bottle?

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12:02, but really that is more of a trick question, as you didn't give the casualty rate of the trip, or the amount of time it took to complete.

 

Also, trying to connect a population growth problem to the Hubbard Peak is really funny. Oil supply is a bell curve, obviously, at some point we will run out, but that doesn't justify not using it now.

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Guest PikaPerson01

Also' date=' trying to connect a population growth problem to the Hubbard Peak is really funny. Oil supply is a bell curve, obviously, at some point we will run out, but that doesn't justify not using it now.[/quote']

 

Smart kid. I like you already. =D

 

The justification should be that the only way to keep the current amount of oil we have would be to greatly limit the rate of consumption. The only way to do that would be to either ration the petroleum supply, which seems unlikely, or find a way to limit population growth.

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Also' date=' trying to connect a population growth problem to the Hubbard Peak is really funny. Oil supply is a bell curve, obviously, at some point we will run out, but that doesn't justify not using it now.[/quote']

 

Smart kid. I like you already. =D

 

The justification should be that the only way to keep the current amount of oil we have would be to greatly limit the rate of consumption. The only way to do that would be to either ration the petroleum supply, which seems unlikely, or find a way to limit population growth.

 

Why do we want to keep the current amount of oil we have? Conservation doesn't fix the problem, now or in the future. Oil isn't produced quickly, so for billions of years, the problem for everyone would be exactly the same, and oil would still not be consumed, by the same reasoning. It is really a solution without a problem.

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We have hit, what we economists call, peak oil, where the the difference in supply of oil let say from t1 to t2 (how much we are extracting from t1 to t2) is smaller than the difference of demand from t1 to t2. Therefore, we are finding less oil to meet the growing demand. You know what? That's just going to drive the demand up.

 

If you see that, if there was a sale on pancakes for 1 cent per say, at Wall-Mart, then you 'expect' it to run out at such a price, therefore, driving the demand up.

 

Given the current market, rationing oil is disrupting the supply / demand signal, which will result in someone saying "Are you Socialist?". Humans will value the accuracy of such a signal, until the 'last minute' when it will figure out something is wrong.

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Suppose everyone finds a partner of the opposite sex with whom they can have intercourse less than a minute from when they're born (let's forget puberty), the intercourse and birth making up the rest of that minute, and suppose each pairing has 4 children, which are all born within that minute.

 

Now suppose that population growth doesn't work like that.

 

Steps've already been taken in certain countries to limit the number of children a couple can have, preferably to 2 or less. One can only hope other countries will follow suit. Were this to be a strictly enforced global law, we'd have our solution.

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Guest King of Games

The development of ethanol from corn and other crops as an alternate fuel source has been increasing. Which can help fill some of the demand.

 

However, the crops are taken from land bought in third world countries, where there is very little demand for fuel and large demand for food. The ironic part is, the crops being turned into fuel can probably feed a lot of those starving countries, especially the people actually growing the crops.

 

Had a discussion about this in school today

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