Accurate Battle Pack Simulator

[Canadian]

[quote]

 

So with YCS San Diego coming up, I figured I'd do what I could to create the best possible Battle Pack: Epic Dawn sealed deck generator. I started with the information that was given to us by Kevin Tewart.

 

CARD SLOT 1 will always contain 1 card from cards 001-055 (a 55 card pool).

"All 8 Xyz Monsters in this set are also in the Card Slot 1 card pool. So if you get an Xyz Monster, it will be in place of one of the other ‘power cards’ that take up this slot. (Unless you get an Xyz Monster in Card Slot 5 – but more about that later.) Around 36% of packs will have an Xyz Monster in this card slot. All of the Card Slot 1 cards are Rare cards."

Source: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3585

Notes: The ratios are somewhat complicated, but this will be explained later on.

 

CARD SLOT 2 will always contain 1 card from cards 056-110 (another 55-card pool).

Source: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3585

Note: All 55 cards appear to be equally likely

 

CARD SLOT 3 will always contain 1 card from cards 111-170 (a 60-card pool).

Source: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3585

Note: All 60 cards appear to be equally likely

 

CARD SLOT 4 will always contain 1 card from cards 171-220 (a 50-card pool that rounds out the set of 220)

Source: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3585

Note: All 50 cards appear to be equally likely

 

"Finally, there’s CARD SLOT 5. This is your wild card slot. The card in this spot could be any of the 220 cards in the set, and there’s a flat 1-in-220 chance of getting any specific card in this spot. It is possible (but unlikely) to get 2 copies of the same card because of this – one copy in its regular slot, and then a special copy of that card in the wild card slot."

Source: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3585

Note: These are your "starfoil" cards. Being starfoil does not affect how they play in any practical sense. Tewart directly states that your chances of getting any particular card as starfoil is equal (1/220) and I have no pack data that suggests otherwise.

 

For the ratios on card slot 1, Tewart gave us some clues.

 

"You’re TWICE as likely to pull Grenosaurus as Gachi-Gachi Gantetsu. We made it this way since there are so many more Level 3’s than Level 2’s in the set."

 

"You’re also more likely to pull Grenosaurus than Number 17: Leviathan Dragon, although the difference is much, much smaller."

 

"You’re SIX times more likely to pull Gem-Knight Pearl than Tiras or Adreus. The pull rates on Tiras & Adreus are just that low."

 

"Here’s a rough scale of how likely you are to pull these Xyz Monsters from your packs:

HIGHLY LIKELY: Grenosaurus & Wind-Up Zenmaister

LIKELY: Number 39: Utopia, Number 17: Leviathan Dragon, Gem-Knight Pearl

LESS LIKELY: Gachi Gachi Gantetsu

UNLIKELY: Tiras, Keeper of Genesis & Adreus, Keeper of Armageddon"

 

Sources: http://www.konami.com/yugioh/articles/?p=3657

 

To fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle, we need to look at pack data. This data is based on several cases of Battle Pack: Epic Dawn booster packs, provided to me by a store whose name I cannot disclose. I have expressed these numbers in terms of the probability of pulling said card compared to the probability of pulling a generic non-Xyz rare such as Ancient Gear Golem, Blowback Dragon, Burden of the Mighty, etc.

 

Non-Xyz Rare: x1

Adreus, Keeper of Armageddon: x.6667

Tiras, Keeper of Armageddon: x.6667

Gachi Gachi Gantetsu: x2.6667

Gem-Knight Pearl: x4

Number 39: Utopia: x4

Number 17: Leviathan Dragon: x4

Grenosaurus: x5.3333

Wind-Up Zenmaister: x5.3333

 

There are some interesting bits of info here for sure, such as the fact that Adreus/Tiras are actually easier to pull than you might have thought. Well, compared to a normal rare at least. I guess that explains why they have a pretty low price tag.

 

These ratios all conform with Kevin Tewarts's clues, appear to be supported by pack data and also are in accordance with his statement that, "Around 36% of packs will have an Xyz Monster in this card slot." With these ratios, it would actually be 36.36% which seems close enough to me.

 

Lastly, it has been stated by Konami (specifically, at the "Sneak Peak" in YCS Philly) that they intentionally ratioed the packs out such that you cannot pull more than 2 copies of a specific rare in 10 successive packs. This includes Starfoils. So it is impossible to pull 2 rare copies of Heavy Storm and 1 Starfoil copy of Heavy Storm in 10 packs. This also has to be taken into consideration.

 

I have created a simulator that incorporates all of the above information. It can be found in the link below:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8LYKVcwcHQdS2RDRWZQQ3FsVlU/edit?usp=sharing

 

You'll be downloading a .jar file, which just means it's Java. To run it on your computer, you'll have to use command prompt. The command is the following:

 

java -jar "[path\file].jar"

 

Of course replacing "path" and "file" with the actual path and file. For example, on my computer it's this:

 

java -jar "C:\Users\Allen\Documents\NetBeansProjects\BattlePackSim\dist\BattlePackSim.jar"

 

You can just right-click on the file and click properties to find out where it is. Then just type the file path into command prompt. Make sure you use backslashes not forward slashes (use \ rather than /). Or if you're lazy, you can just move the file straight to the C: drive, so the path becomes just:

 

java -jar "C:\BattlePackSim.jar"

 

If you're curious how to copy and paste from command prompt (so you can show DGz your pool for example), it's very simple. Just right click anywhere on command prompt, select "Mark" and then you can highlight whatever you want. Once you've highlighted what you want, just use ctrl+c to copy the way you normally would.

 

Every once in awhile, instead of generating a pool it'll give you a message that says, "Generated an invalid pool. Please run the program again for a new one." Don't freak out; it just means that it made a pool with more than 2 copies of the same rare (which as we discussed, isnt supposed to be possible). Just run it again. Anyways, I hope you like the program. Here's 3 example pools generated by the program...

 

Pool #1:

2 Wind-Up Zenmaister

1 Divine Wrath

2 Grenosaurus

1 Number 39: Utopia

1 Krebons

1 Graceful Charity

1 Super Conductor Tyranno

1 Soul Exchange

1 Book of Moon

1 Exiled Force

1 Windstorm of Etaqua

1 Fissure

2 Axe of Despair

1 Power Frame

1 Infected Mail

1 Dust Tornado

1 Pixie Ring

1 Interdimensional Matter Transporter

1 Slate Warrior

2 Mad Dog of Darkness

1 Vampire Lord

1 Cybernetic Magician

1 Abyssal Kingshark

1 Charcoal Inpachi

1 Theban Nightmare

1 Chiron the Mage

1 Backup Warrior

1 Level Eater

1 Worm Barses

2 Morphing Jar

1 Noisy Gnat

1 Cloudian - Poison Cloud

1 Helping Robo for Combat

2 Naturia Strawberry

1 Giant Soldier of Stone

1 Stealth Bird

1 Mad Reloader

1 Alector, Sovereign of Birds

1 Drillroid

1 Psi-Blocker

1 Solemn Judgment

1 Scapegoat

1 Yaksha

1 Gagaga Magician

 

Pool #2:

2 Burden of the Mighty

1 Gem-Knight Pearl

1 Witch of the Black Forest

1 Number 39: Utopia

1 Grenosaurus

2 Gachi Gachi Gantetsu

1 Dark Dust Spirit

1 Blowback Dragon

1 Horn of the Unicorn

1 Darkworld Shackles

1 Inverse Universe

1 Needle Ceiling

1 Greenkappa

1 Grave Squirmer

1 Fissure

2 Damage Gate

1 Mysterious Guard

1 Ryko, Lightsworn Hunter

1 Doomcaliber Knight

1 Botanical Lion

1 Gaap the Divine Soldier

1 Twin-Barrel Dragon

1 Bazoo the Soul-Eater

1 Blizzard Dragon

1 Wind-Up Soldier

1 D.D. Assailant

1 The Calculator

1 Guardian Sphinx

1 Dark Resonator

2 Level Eater

1 Twin-Headed Behemoth

1 Night Assailant

1 Mask of Darkness

1 Blackwing - Zephyros the Elite

1 Gagaga Magician

1 Amazoness Sage

1 Twin-Sword Marauder

1 Phantom of Chaos

1 Zombyra the Dark

1 Injection Fairy Lily

1 Gilasaurus

1 Arcana Force XIV - Temperance

1 Beast King Barbaros

1 Tour Guide From the Underworld

1 Nightmare Wheel

1 Fox Fire

 

Pool #3:

1 Jinzo

2 Number 17: Leviathan Dragon

1 Raigeki

1 Ring of Destruction

1 Wind-Up Zenmaister

1 Gachi Gachi Gantetsu

1 Blowback Dragon

1 Premature Burial

1 Torrential Tribute

1 Half or Nothing

1 Magic Drain

1 Enemy Controller

1 Tribute to the Doomed

2 Liberty at Last!

1 Penguin Soldier

1 Compulsory Evacuation Device

1 Miracle's Wake

2 Big Bang Shot

1 Goblin Elite Attack Force

1 Gene-Warped Warwolf

1 Buster Blader

2 Bazoo the Soul-Eater

1 Theban Nightmare

1 Slate Warrior

1 Beast King Barbaros

1 Abyssal Kingshark

1 The Tricky

1 Gyroid

1 Possessed Dark Soul

2 Gagaga Magician

2 Phantom of Chaos

1 Mad Reloader

1 Giant Soldier of Stone

1 Makyura the Destructor

1 Gilasaurus

1 Dekoichi the Battlechanted Locomotive

1 Mysterious Guard

1 Goblindbergh

1 Big Shield Gardna

1 Asura Priest

1 Ryko, Lightsworn Hunter

1 Doomcaliber Knight

1 Morphing Jar

1 Super Conductor Tyranno

[/quote]

 

Its safe, easy, and incredibly fun.

 

On DN, you can't make 30 card decks, so you use proxies (I use Rituals) as the 10 extra cards and just banish them before the game.