Randomness & Design

[Trebuchet MS]

So, before we begin, a relevant video:

 

Consider Yugioh's own power curve. Effectless cards are already below the curve. Many random cards existing have a negative effect for "failure", skewing their randomness delta in favour of "below the curve". Even if "failure" means "does nothing", it still looks like the card's delta is still skewed under.

 

What will it take for randomness-based card effects to shine in Yugioh?

[Mysty]

As shown there, the best way to make a random effect is to have any outcome be beneficial to the user yet sometimes it will be weaker than a "balanced" card that already exists and sometimes stronger. The key is keeping the delta small.

An example that might be applicable for yugioh could be this:

Random Catastrophe
Normal Spell
Target 2 cards your opponent controls that can be targeted, at random; destroy those targets.

 

It gives the possibility of hitting just the right cards while at the same time could just be useless (if it would hit only destruction-immune or unaffected cards). It also targets (so the opponent will know what will blow up before it resolves) and destroys, increasing its counters. Of course, this is still a generic 2-for-1, which means it might need to be nerfed to:

Random Catastrophe
Normal Spell
Discard a card, then target 2 cards your opponent controls that can be targeted, at random; destroy those targets.

This makes it potentially more useful than Twin Twister, but this is Normal Speed and might not hit those Spell/Traps you really need. Another alternative:

Random Catastrophe
Normal Spell
Discard a card; make your opponent sends 2 cards they control (or all, if fewer), chosen at random, to the Graveyard (for no effect).

Non-targeting, non-destroying, non-"effecting" (If I remember correctly, this kind of wording could even bypass Apoqliphort immunity and prevent Shaddolls from activating), yet still random and still a 2-for-2.

This can even be "lowered" to its singular form:

Small Random Catastrophe
Normal spell
Make your opponent send a card they control, chosen at random, to the Graveyard (for no effect).

Now it's a 1-for-1 that won't give you the precision of MST or Night Beam, or the ability to guarantee destroying a monster like Fissure or Hammer Shot. Do I think this is balanced? Probably not, it could very well be broken, but I think it's a good place to talk about random destruction. There are many mix and match situations for this type of card and I certainly didn't cover every situation.

As for effectless cards being under the curve, that's just Konami not wanting to print 'strong' Normal monsters. I imagine any normal monsters that would be played would have much higher ATK than ones of now and be supported by a toolbox archetype to allow getting a strong beater when needed.

[ihop]

There's a pretty fundamental issue when comparing Yugioh's random cards to Hearthstone's in that any randomness in Yugioh needs to be able to be efficiently done with a coin or dice. Some of the random cards in Hearthstone are awesome and really interesting, such as Piloted Shredded and Dr. Boom, but Shredder-like effects are impossible to put into Yugioh because you can't just put a random card out of nowhere on your field, and Boom-esque effects which target a random card on the field are almost impossible to do as well unless you have 3 dice. The closest Yugioh has to clean luck cards is stuff like Power Tool and Spellbook Library of the Crescent because they're achievable and don't fall far from the power curve as the video said.