mathamatics behind deck building

[.:pyramid:.]

i want to know whether im working out my odds right of is their a different forumla to work out the chances you will draw a certain card in your oppening hand. the reason i am asking is because i want to take my game to the next level.

 

 

 

when you pick up your first card from your deck you know that the chance of you drawing it is x/40, x=the number of that card you have in your deck.

 

when drawing the first card of your deck to make your starting hand if your card is;

a limited card (1/40)= 2.5% on drawing it

a semi limited card (2/40) = 5% on drawing it

a unlimited card (3/40) = 7.5% on drawing it

 

when drawing the second card of your deck to make your starting hand if your card is, assuming you didnt draw it already (note, if you want to simulate drawing doubles go 1 group down. e.g unlimited to semi limited);

a limited card (1/39)= 2.6% on drawing it (rounded up)

a semi limited card (2/39) = 5.2% on drawing it (rounded up)

a unlimited card (3/39) = 7.7% on drawing it (rounded up)

 

when drawing the Third card of your deck to make your starting hand if your card is, assuming you didnt draw it already (note, if you want to simulate drawing doubles go 1 group down. e.g unlimited to semi limited);

a limited card (1/38)= 2.6% on drawing it (rounded up)

a semi limited card (2/38) = 5.3% on drawing it (rounded up)

a unlimited card (3/38) = 7.9% on drawing it (rounded up 7.89)

 

when drawing the fouth card of your deck to make your starting hand if your card is, assuming you didnt draw it already (note, if you want to simulate drawing doubles go 1 group down. e.g unlimited to semi limited);

a limited card (1/37)= 2.7% on drawing it (rounded up)

a semi limited card (2/37) = 5.4% on drawing it (rounded up)

a unlimited card (3/37) = 8.1% on drawing it (rounded up)

 

when drawing the fith card of your deck to make your starting hand if your card is, assuming you didnt draw it already (note, if you want to simulate drawing doubles go 1 group down. e.g unlimited to semi limited);

a limited card (1/36)= 2.8% on drawing it (rounded up)

a semi limited card (2/36) = 5.6% on drawing it (rounded up 5.555)

a unlimited card (3/36) = 8.3% on drawing it (rounded up)

 

your first draw phase draw;

a limited card (1/35)= 2.9% on drawing it (rounded up)

a semi limited card (2/35) = 5.7% on drawing it (rounded up)

a unlimited card (3/35) = 8.6% on drawing it (rounded up)

[Mindscatter]

Ya we know this. Usually when you're in a Duel you have a calculator for LP, you can also use it for odds.

[iAmNateXero]

You should simplify all the equations. IE: 2/40 should be 1/20. It looks neater, and is mathematically correct. (Not saying 2/40 isn't correct.)

[tonisanoob]

im pretty sure your thinking too much into it

[Toffee.]

Draw engines ftw?

[iAmNateXero]

This is good to know. It shows you your deck before you even build it. +Rep and subscribed!

[Exiro]

im pretty sure your thinking too much into it

 

This isn't even that complicated.

Perhaps you're just not thinking enough into it.

[Guest PikaPerson01]

this isn't news to anyone. No one cares.

[RyanAtlus]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

[Exiro]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

You calculated incorrectly.

[RyanAtlus]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

You calculated incorrectly.

 

Then can you calculate the chance of drawing at least 1 out of 3 Shapesnatches in a 40-card Shapesnatch OTK?

[Guest PikaPerson01]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

Pro-Tip: It's not.

[Toffee.]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

Pro-Tip: It's not.

 

It also depends on the build.

[Exiro]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

You calculated incorrectly.

 

Then can you calculate the chance of drawing at least 1 out of 3 Shapesnatches in a 40-card Shapesnatch OTK?

 

Calculation of the chance of drawing at least 1 out of 3 Shapesnatches in a 40-card Shapesnatch OTK.

[.:pyramid:.]

see it was just i rember, reading that someone had a 30% cahnce of drawing it, but then i remebered it was macro (and was talking about the difference between running 3 d fissure and 2 marco and running 3 d fissure and three macro), and that is why i thought it was wrong

[~/Coolio Prime\~]

I once caluclated that your odds of drawing an unlimited card in your opening hand (40-card deck) + first Draw Phase would be almost 60%.

 

3/20 = 60%

 

 

:o

[zombiepromking]

This theory doesn't always work. Tested it once; a 1/40 chance turned into a 1/15 chance of drawing a limited card in your first hand. The true odds would be given depending on how you shuffle your deck. Which puts me way over my head in terms of math.

[BehindTheMask]

secondly, a simpler and more general formula for an opening hand to contain one of a certain card would be more like:

[(x/d)^y]*[([d-x]/d)^(6-y)]

 

where:

x = number of copies of said card in your deck

y = number of copies of said card you want to draw in your opening hand

d = deck size

 

 

Taken from : http://forums.yugiohetc.com/topic/56798-yugioh-and-mathematics/page__view__findpost__p__1267655

[.:pyramid:.]

This theory doesn't always work. Tested it once; a 1/40 chance turned into a 1/15 chance of drawing a limited card in your first hand. The true odds would be given depending on how you shuffle your deck. Which puts me way over my head in terms of math.

 

stacking will always affect your odds dramatically. for example when people try to put their deck in an order before shuffling so they get a good mix of monsters to s/t ratio. to work this out you would need to work out the amount of monsters, spells and traps you have (normally these two are treated as 1 pile for some duelists because of the lack of traps they run ). so say your going for perfect spilt in your first hand (2 monsters, 2 spells, 2 traps ) then your odd would be;

 

monsters = x amount of 1 monster card in deck/ the total monster count

spells = x amount of 1 spell card in deck/ the total spell count

traps = x amount of 1 trap card in deck/ the total trap count

 

and then double them.

 

note: the second part is wrong because you would have slightly better odds than double them because your monster/ spell /trap is lower. also i would know how to stack the deck like this to makes this true because this is only an example.

[zombiepromking]

This theory doesn't always work. Tested it once; a 1/40 chance turned into a 1/15 chance of drawing a limited card in your first hand. The true odds would be given depending on how you shuffle your deck. Which puts me way over my head in terms of math.

 

stacking will always affect your odds dramatically. for example when people try to put their deck in an order before shuffling so they get a good mix of monsters to s/t ratio. to work this out you would need to work out the amount of monsters' date=' spells and traps you have (normally these two are treated as 1 pile for some duelists because of the lack of traps they run ). so say your going for perfect spilt in your first hand (2 monsters, 2 spells, 2 traps ) then your odd would be;

 

monsters = x amount of 1 monster card in deck/ the total monster count

spells = x amount of 1 spell card in deck/ the total spell count

traps = x amount of 1 trap card in deck/ the total trap count

 

and then double them.

 

note: the second part is wrong because you would have slightly better odds than double them because your monster/ spell /trap is lower. also i would know how to stack the deck like this to makes this true because this is only an example.

[/quote']

 

God i thought it would be much more complicated than it turns out. Soft stacking is honestly the only way to assure this + shuffle gives you what you want.

[RyanAtlus]

Sorry!

I recalculated and I saw the chance being only 39,43%

[Mysty]

Sorry!

I recalculated and I saw the chance being only 39' date='43%

[/quote']

 

Those odds are quite good if those are really the odds. That's why I consistently draw Mysterious Triangle!

 

Now has anybody figured out the mathematics Bastion Misawa used to build his decks?

[cerberus21]

Screw page 1 nay sayers! This is a helpful thread. +1 rep for you and your calculator skills. Everyone else (including me) is too lazy to do this.

[~ P O L A R I S ~]

Now has anybody figured out the mathematics Bastion Misawa used to build his decks?

 

Whatever they are, they sure don't work. xD Maybe he's not as good as he says he is.

[BehindTheMask]

secondly' date=' a simpler and more general formula for an opening hand to contain one of a certain card would be more like:

[(x/d)^y']*[([d-x]/d)^(6-y)]

 

where:

x = number of copies of said card in your deck

y = number of copies of said card you want to draw in your opening hand

d = deck size

 

 

Taken from : http://forums.yugiohetc.com/topic/56798-yugioh-and-mathematics/page__view__findpost__p__1267655

 

Whats that BtM?

 

You have a formula anyone can use.

 

OH SNAP.