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Do you feel lucky?(Lucky Punch)


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[center][img]http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/7420/luckyea.jpg[/img][/center]

[center]Once per turn, when your opponent declares an attack: Flip a coin three times, if you get three heads, draw 3 cards, if you get 3 tails, destroy this card. If this face-up card is destroyed, you lose 6000 Life Points.[/center]

[center]Discuss.[/center]

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The HELL?!

First of all, is Rescue Rabbit deflecting Behemoth's attack?

So it's a Continuous Card that once per turn when an opponent attacks, you flip 3 coins. There's like...a 1/8 chance you'll draw 3 cards. There's an equal chance it'll destroy itself. And the remaining time, it'll do absolutely nothing.

Oh, and if it's destroyed, you lose 6000 LP.

IMPORTANT: THIS IS NOT DAMAGE. YOU CANNOT REFLECT OR NEGATE THIS LP LOSS. It's the same as the Immortal of Thunder.

Even Charlie's Deck didn't gamble like this. There's a 1/8 chance of success, a 3/4 chance of doing nothing, and a 1/8 chance of failing spectacularly. At least Charlie had a 1/6 chance of success and everything else would backfire.

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[quote name='Expelsword - ä¿¡ä»°' timestamp='1334172582' post='5910448']
How many Life Points are worth a +1 in terms of card advantage?
If we come up with that, I'll calculate the expected value of this card.

By the way, Cup of Ace has an expected value of -1.
[/quote]
Cup of Ace has a 50/50 chance to be a +1 or -1.
This has a 12.5% chance to be a +3, a 12.5% chance to be a -1, and a 75% chance to sit on your field uselessly until MST'd.

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It means overall that you can expect to lose more cards than you gain from playing Cup of Ace.

Now, let me try to break down the expected value of [i]this [/i]card

[b]Upstart Goblin Method - 1 card = 1000 LP[/b]
1/8 Chance of +3
1/8 Chance of -7
6/8 Chance of +/- 0
(.125 x 3) + (.125 x -7) = [b]-.5[/b]


[b][b]Solemn Warning Method - 1 card = 2000 LP[/b][/b]
1/8 Chance of +3
1/8 Chance of -4
6/8 Chance of +/- 0
(.125 x 3) + (.125 x -4) = [b]-.125[/b]


[b][b]Solemn Judgment Method - 1 card = 4000 LP[/b][/b]
1/8 Chance of +3
1/8 Chance of -2.5
6/8 Chance of +/- 0
(.125 x 3) + (.125 x -2.5) = [b]+[/b][b].0625[/b]

tl;dr: If this card is never destroyed by your opponent, which with 3 MST and Heavy is [i]extremely[/i] unlikely, you'd need to value LP very little in order to even consider this card a ([i]minute[/i]) advantage in the long run.

stl;dr: Mathematically a terrible card.

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