Wrathos Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [img]http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100327024934/yugioh/images/f/f4/BarrelDragonMC1-EN-ScR-LE.jpg[/img] [spoiler][img]http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20080207034311/yugioh/images/e/eb/BlowbackDragonCP05-EN-R.png[/img][/spoiler] Is Konami bad at math? Discuss statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 This may sound stupid, but I'm actually having trouble figuring out the percentage of success rate on this. OT: Bad card is Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buttercup Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 1/2 x1/2 +1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 3= 0.25 + 0.375= 0.625= 62.5% Blowback's slightly less consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrathos Posted September 11, 2010 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 For those of you who can't figure it out, the success rate is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [quote name='Wrathos' timestamp='1284215494' post='4616692'] For those of you who can't figure it out, the success rate is 50%. [/quote] I'm not a math genius, but I'm pretty sure your wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buttercup Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 *does a prob tree* Yes it is 50%. I suck at math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shizuku Oikawa Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 I'm gonna take a guess that it's around 33% or higher for at least one of them. But then again, it's a 50/50% chance per toss, plus that you need exactly 2 heads for Barrel Dragon (Unless I'm wrong)... I'm not really sure on what to think on this card, it's not bad, but it's not good either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 Wouldn't 2 out of 4 Coins with 50% chance each be a 50% chance total? (reduce 2/4, thats a 1/2 chance) Than how can 2 heads out of 3 flips be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffee. Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 Both of Barrel Dragon's artworks are amazing. Japanese - Giant revolvers America - 'Effing proton cannons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buttercup Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [quote name='Canadian' timestamp='1284216056' post='4616708'] Wouldn't 2 out of 4 Coins with 50% chance each be a 50% chance total? (reduce 2/4, thats a 1/2 chance) Than how can 2 heads out of 3 flips be correct? [/quote] YES I HAVE NO LIFE. [img]http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/9781/probs.jpg[/img] 4/8 is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shizuku Oikawa Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [quote name='Canadian' timestamp='1284216056' post='4616708'] Wouldn't 2 out of 4 Coins with 50% chance each be a 50% chance total? (reduce 2/4, thats a 1/2 chance) Than how can 2 heads out of 3 flips be correct? [/quote] I think it's for each coin toss Doing the math for this kind of probability is hard Wait, I'm pretty sure it's 33%, considering that there are 6 outcomes, and you need at least 2 heads of the outcomes. 33% is still kinda alot though in some of the games I played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Cakey Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 Okay...Barrel Dragon. The way it's written, it requires exactly 2 Heads. Getting 2 Heads and 1 Tails is exactly the same probability as getting 3 Heads: 0.5x0.5x0.5=0.125 or ~13%. However, I'm pretty sure that it's just poorly worded, and requires [i]at least[/i] 2 Heads, meaning 2 or 3 Heads with 3 attempts. I can't really do the math to calculate that, but I verified that probability tree of death, and it is indeed 50%. So Barrel Dragon is either 13% or 50%, and Blowback Dragon is 50%. Which, I guess, isn't too bad, except they're 2- and 1-Tribute monsters that only have a 25% chance of gaining you any advantage i.e. being any more useful than Caius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffee. Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 I'm pretty sure if you get 3 Heads with Barrel Dragon, that still counts as 2 of the 3 being heads. Also, the effects of Barrel and Blowback are the same in the World championship games(except targets, of course), meaning if you get 3 Heads with Barrel, it still destroys something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manjoume Thunder Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 You do not have to do any math. [spoiler=Simple Yugimatics] Does it look like it has a 30%+ chance of failing? If yes > Card is terrible. (Ignore that if the card you are analyzing has a broken effect) If no > Ignore the risk and [s]fight the power[/s] proceed to analyze the other part of the effect.[/spoiler] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrathos Posted September 11, 2010 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 My point was that since the probability of success is 50% they might as well have just had it been 1 coin toss. [quote name='Manjoume Thunder' timestamp='1284222328' post='4617091'] You do not have to do any math. [spoiler=Simple Yugimatics] Does it look like it has a 30%+ chance of failing? If yes > Card is terrible. (Ignore that if the card you are analyzing has a broken effect) If no > Ignore the risk and [s]fight the power[/s] proceed to analyze the other part of the effect.[/spoiler] [/quote] Snipe Hunter has a 33% chance of failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manjoume Thunder Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [s]And he is bad.[/s] Make it 35 then. I just made up a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chedbonlahor Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 It's 50% the 3 coin flip is the thing that confuses everyone. Forget the math and use logic for a second. -Essentially it is the first to either 2 Heads or 2 Tails -There is exactly the same change of getting either 2 Heads or 2 Tails -50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffee. Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 A hero doesnt need probability! Courage changes 33% into 100%! *Deflects the shot with Protector Shade* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buttercup Posted September 11, 2010 Report Share Posted September 11, 2010 [quote name='chedbonlahor' timestamp='1284226059' post='4617338'] It's 50% the 3 coin flip is the thing that confuses everyone. Forget the math and use logic for a second. -Essentially it is the first to either 2 Heads or 2 Tails -There is exactly the same change of getting either 2 Heads or 2 Tails -50% [/quote] No. Read the awesome probability tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azuh Posted September 12, 2010 Report Share Posted September 12, 2010 Inb4 FiddyPercent >_> [img]http://www.coast2coastmixtapes.com/blog/lilfats/uploaded_images/50-cent-722078.jpg[/img] Resemblance people, resemblance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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