No rules, you say? Somebody better not abuse that by making a totally pointless thread!

[Exiro]

Of course, doing that would be lame, so this thread will be totally pointful instead.

Your opening hand contains Heavy Storm and Divine Warning. You don't know what your opponent is playing. You're considering a Pro Heavy.

[b]Some statistics:[/b]
15% chance that your opponent draws Heavy Storm, assuming they run it.
There's a 39.43% chance that your opponent draws at least one of their 3 MSTs, assuming they run 3.

a) If the opponent runs Heavy Storm as well as 3 MSTs, there's a 49.25% chance that your opponent draws at least one of those 4 cards.
b) If the opponent runs Heavy Storm as well as 2 MSTs, there's a 39.43% chance that your opponent draws at least one of those 3 cards.

If there's a 50% chance for a to be true, and a 50% chance for b to be true, by average, there's a 44.34% chance that your opponent draws at least one of those (3 or 4) cards. In any case, the chances of removal never exceed 50%.

Do you Pro Heavy? And, if so, which variant: set Heavy only, or the Divine Warning as well?

[Azuh]

The game isn't as fun when you put equations into the mix

This is just like saying that in order to catch Mewtwo in Pokemon, [url="http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Catch_rate"]you have to work out the stupid equation that only mathematicians can figure out[/url], when all I wanna do is have fun, choose a ball that will give me x4 catch rate, and press the A button like a madman, cause we all know that helps.

In other words: Numbers can predict things, but why would you want to predict with numbers when its much more fun not to?

[Merci]

There's a 60% chance that they'll draw something that can destroy one of your sets, so for me, the natural thing would be to set NEITHER card. Setting Heavy will achieve absolutely nothing, and setting Solemn Warning is useless if they destroy it. There's only a 40% chance they'll get a monster, so it's only natural to go for hte more likely statistic. Thus, once they draw into an S/T-destroying card, it will be useless as you haven't set anything.

Granted, you will be open for a direct attack, HOWEVER wouldn't paying 2000 LP be MORE damage than whatever monster they could summon? Of course, they could Synchro/Xyz spam, and it'll be all over then with nothing to stop them, but eh.. chances are that if they summon a monster, it will be a Level 4 or lower one, and these tend to have ATKs at around or below 1900. Thus, by conserving your Warning for a potentially stronger monster AND your Heavy Storm for whatever card they set next (like the MST they drew, or something like Mirror Force), you're taking the bigger end of the stick, even though you're just relying on luck.

[Exiro]

[quote name='Azuh' timestamp='1345125976' post='6008136']
The game isn't as fun when you put equations into the mix

This is just like saying that in order to catch Mewtwo in Pokemon, [url="http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Catch_rate"]you have to work out the stupid equation that only mathematicians can figure out[/url], when all I wanna do is have fun, choose a ball that will give me x4 catch rate, and press the A button like a madman, cause we all know that helps.

In other words: Numbers can predict things, but why would you want to predict when its much more fun not to?
[/quote]

But here, you're assuming that it [i]is[/i] more fun not to predict things with numbers. I tend to differ, I'd say there's about 50% chance that this is true.

[Merci]

Still, relying on luck is stupid. I'd rather just duel without thinking about the statistics.

[Azuh]

[quote name='Exiro Divinus' timestamp='1345126386' post='6008139']
But here, you're assuming that it [i]is[/i] more fun not to predict things with numbers. I tend to differ, I'd say there's about 50% chance that this is true.
[/quote]

But here you're saying that you think that your opponent runs Heavy, MST, Solemns etc. but what if they aren't? What if the opponent is running a 50 card deck? What if the opponent decided to cheat and run 40 Heavy Storm cause he is only playing for lolz

There is only so much you can predict, and crunching numbers before a duel isn't going to make you play any better. Personally, instead of numbers and equations, you should be only thinking about the possibly move that your opponent can have on your current hand. Example: "they might have Gorz, so I'm not going to attack directly this turn", instead of "Theres about a 0.9694848438% chance they have Gorz, so I'm not going to attack"

As for your pro Heavy thing, I don't think its ever wise to set Heavy in the first place, even using it as possible bait.

[Merci]

[quote]
As for your pro Heavy thing, I don't think its ever wise to set Heavy in the first place, even using it as possible bait.[/quote]

Yeeaahhh, I believe said that earlier just now. Never use Heavy as bait.

[-Griffin]

Your math is bad and you should feel bad.

If they run Heavy + 3 MST, they have a 49.25% chance to draw at least 1 of them.

If they run a total of 3 backrow clearers, they have a 39.43% chance to draw at least 1 of them.

If, as you suggest, there's a 50% chance of either, you're looking at roughly a 44% chance they can destroy set cards on turn 1.

[Legend Zero]

[img]http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/511twEfuAjL._SL500_AA300_.jpg[/img]

OT: I actually wouldn't if that was the situation, but now that I think about it I pro Heavy a lot.

[Stan Alda]

I'm not a mathematical mind, but I think this equation assumes too much. It reminds me of the "hit on 16, stay on 17" idea in blackjack; calculating the odds of success with hitting/staying on a given card will only get you so far. Sometimes the odds just aren't in your favor.

Personally, I play by pulling strategies out of my ass (so to speak) using whatever cards I have in my hand and a rough guesstimate of what my opponent is using, and it has worked fairly well to this point.

[Aerion Brightflame]

I never calculate odds to this extent, just make educated guesses of my opponents plans fro what i know, and build my own from there.

And rely on top decking. Continually.

[DARKPLANT RISING]

My 999 Master Balls defy laws of Catch rates.

...I suck at life.

OT: Depended on what deck the opp was using, really.

[Le Welche Alt]

I believe this entire thread can be answered in saying that pro storms are never a good decision and quite frankly discussing them is a waste of our time.

[Just Crouton]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFoC3TR5rzI

OT: Statistics are not worth thinking about. Why would you set Heavy?

[Agro]

You're not taking into account how terribly most everyone shuffles a deck.

You're also, apparently, not taking into account that the "no rules" thing ended days ago.

[byak]

Pro Storming is the worst thing to do right now

everyone mains 3 MST and considering how [i]good[/i] most of the playerbase is they're going to blind mst the turn they draw them

Also, setting Heavy isn't to use it as bait. Pro Storming was an actual play back then.

Pro Storming was basically setting two cards turn 1, one that you could use at some point along with Heavy Storm

if your opponent sees two backrows, they'll be convinced that they won't get heavy'd for your plus and will be confident to set 2-3 backrows, which is when you utterly destroy them

but like I said, blind msting makes the play too risky

[Exiro]

I'll admit that I didn't research the maths behind it too much. I, being me, didn't just accept "the probability is 49.25%" for an answer. Here's what went wrong: there is in fact a 1*6/40 = 15% of drawing one of the four cards, and the same can be said for the second card, but these events aren't mutually exclusive.

The real chance of drawing at least one of them, is equal to the chance of not drawing none of them. So:
1 - (chance of not drawing it on turn 1) (chance of not drawing it on turn 2) etc.
1 - ((number of cards in deck - number of cards not to draw) / number of cards in deck) ( etc. )
1 - (36/40) (35/39) (34/38) (33/37) (32/36) (31/35) = 0.4925 = 49.25%

Yes, noone cares. I don't care that noone cares.

[Synchronized]

The only time I've set Heavy Storm is late game, perhaps when I've got a Chain that's no longer live or something along those lines. It's generally worked out to my favor.

[-Berserker-]

I learned the move from YCM, and use it in fun duels. It works pretty well there.