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ITT: Math about deck building typed on an iPod.

Resident Fascist

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Resident Fascist Newbie

Resident Fascist

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Since I suck at introductions, I'll come straight out with my maths. Running any given card at 3 in a 40 card deck gives you a 3:40 chance of drawing that card, also simplified into 1:13.3 chance of drawing it. However, subsequent draws become much higher possibility of drawing said card. As you draw 5 cards at the start of the game, the chances of drawing that card now stand at 1:11.

 

While this is obvious math, it can play a pivotable role in deck building. Do I want to draw a card more often, or less often? Your deck at any given point can be given a full chart of information, and you can even put ratios to drawing specific cards. Let's say Player 1 has 25 cards left in his or her deck, there are 3 copies of Reborn Tengu in the deck, as well as 3 copies of Tour Guide. Player 1 would perfer to draw into a tour guide on it's own for his draw phase. There is a 1:8.3 chance of this occuring. As this number is actually considerably frequent, Player 1 will have less things to think about if he doesn't draw the tour guide.

 

Moreso to prove Yugioh is more than just putting cards together and winning, is my point that the game actually requires a lot of forward thinking and mathamatical skill to play at the best level. Let's put it this way, if you could accurately calculate the chance of drawing cards you want by checking the total number of cards you've played, would you? More often than not, it's actually much easier to calculate percentages than you think if you know exactly what's in your deck. Without prior knowledge of your deck, even compared to extremely simlar decks, sometimes even card for card; you will be at a severe disadvantage playig against someone who has done the maths.

 

Now onto the second topic of this thread, and you guessed it. More maths. When choosing how many of a card to run, how many times have you gotten stuck? Quite often, I assume. While some listen directly from the pros and follow their words exactly, there is no theoretical "correct" awnser. One person may perfer more or less of a specific card. However by using math, you can clearly see the differences in percentages, here I shall show you the probabilty of drawing into any given card with a 35 card deck and no searcher cards.

 

1 copy: 1:35

2 copies: 1:17.5(18)

3 copies: 1:11.6(12)

 

You'll see the big difference. Running 2 copies nearly doubles the chances of drawing the card, while running 3 increases the probabilty further, it is nowhere near as significant. This means, in short terms: running a card in 2 is not particually a splashable choice if the card is dead in the hand often. For these cards, like cards that give a slight bonus but pale in certian situations to the point where they nearly become useless, 1 or even 0 copies is probably the best. For a card you'd like more frequently but not all the time, 2 copies would be better. For cards that see continual use, 3 copies is fine. Using this, it's much easier to deckbuild than trial and error. While not all cards are good in certian decks, it's easy to assume what doesn't work and what does by checking around the internet a little.

 

Next, I'd like to discuss something that bugs me the most: The extra and side decks. These two things are where I completely fail, and deckbuilding is usually my weakest area, but I decided to do a little testing and wanted to show I'm not completely stupid. The extra deck can't have any maths put into it, but running the best cards is simple personal preference. I perfer Lavalval Chain over Daigusto Emeral, for instance. Though it's safe to agree that every deck should be running extra deck, unless it's an Exodia ftk or something. There are "best" cards in theory, but it matters to preference unless the awnser is obvious, such as rda vs scrap dragon, or stardust vs power tool. As far as Im concerned: If you're running good synchros and Xyz monsters in your Extra deck and they help out, fine.

 

Now to the side deck. I hate this thing. In round 2 you either side your opponent out or they side you out. But again, I always like to side in my dd crows when facing decks with glow ups and things that rely on the graveyard. And I almost always side in prohibitions. The side deck can also. Store cards, like I side 3 MST and Heavy, incase I run into a deck relying on the back. But then comes the hardest descion: what to side out?Do I drop this card, and lose this combo? Or do I prioritise defence rather than pure reaming through your deck to find your threats? Do I take this card out and lose deck power overall for a much easier time overall?

Or do I side this, and just wait to see what happens? Is pretty much the mindset I and probably others get when making the descions on siding cards. Siding in general has become more annoying due to new Meta decks, and 15 cards is a bit crammed. There used to be a "1 size fits all glove" in the form of Royal Oppression, which managed to shut down many metagame decks. As that card is now banned, you now have to take a much more specialised side deck. Or a side deck that covers your deck weakness. Again, simple math can determine how many of a card to side. As the math is pretty much the same as for the main deck, I won't explain it in full detail.

 

Now, in the closing notes of this thread I'd like to state that cards get better and worse with each format. Depending on what everyone is running, it cam be easier or harder to manage to use a card, such as the fact most traps arn't as good as the used be multiple formats ago. This is because everyone and their dog is running heavy storm somewhere. Well maybe not everyone, but a lot of people.

 

So what was the point of this admittedly long thread?: To prove ygo is more than putting the best cards together and winning. Commence hatemail from Ycm, but I tried. Atleast.

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Legend Zero Newbie

Legend Zero

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I'm the only one in my city that counts cards while dueling. :/

 

However, this game can't be brought down to simply math. Its the choices we make in our decks for the luck factor that count more often than not.

 

This is all obvious for experienced players, but its a good teaching tool for new/bad players.

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Dr. Cakey Newbie

Dr. Cakey

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2 copies gives you a 2/35 chance, not 1/17.5 .-.

simplified. Unless Im doing the maths wrong. 1:17.5 chance is pretty much the same as 2:35 chance. Divide 35 by two and you get 17.5, correct?

You've been defeated by Shard. Feel the shame.

 

These numbers are actually key. If you have 3 copies of a card, you have a ~10% chance of drawing it on your first draw alone, which is actually decent odds as these things go.

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byak Newbie

byak

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You're basically saying that the fact of "play this card and you'll draw it more!" is revolutionary and something people have not realized, and you still admit to your fallacy in the article which has no relevant point at all other than stating the obvious and concluding that the topic is in fact stupid.

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Resident Fascist Newbie

Resident Fascist

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You're basically saying that the fact of "play this card and you'll draw it more!" is revolutionary and something people have not realized, and you still admit to your fallacy in the article which has no relevant point at all other than stating the obvious and concluding that the topic is in fact stupid.

 

What's obvious to some is A-Level to others. It's obviously intended for new/bad players =/ Oh well, I tried.

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werewolfjedi Newbie

werewolfjedi

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Was there any point to that post other than to increase your post count? Clearly there is room for discussion on the actual topic, or you could just start your own topic about the Ninjas, there heaven-forbid you'd actually be on topic in the first place.

 

just seeing what would happen.

I'm in a silly mood today.

 

honestly. I don't see why you play one copy of a card unless it's limited anyway. I always run 2 or more, because I I'm pretty sure that I'm going to need another one before the duel is done, the only difference between 2 and 3 for me is if it's a dead card at certain times, if it's never dead, I usually run it at three

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