UK EU Referendum [In or Out?]

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Equivialant GDP doesn't correspond to Equivilant goods, because it's Gross Domestic Product.

 

There will still be a demand for the product we import from the EU, because there are a lot of EU products we demand because of quality not just price. We still want German cars, French Champaine and Wines, Italian Wines ect ect.

 

Just because the US has equivilant or better GDP doesn't mean it can ship us the same sorts of goods to the same sort of quality that we currently own. And that's probably more important to a consumer than just the money. It's part of the issue with economics I think, that economics often divorces itself from the reality to consider just the money.

 

Of course it also depends upon whether or not the UK maintains a lot of the quality regulations that the EU has; I hope it does, because most of them are in place for our benefit (I.E. requiring proof that something is harmless before use, rather than harmful before disqualifying). It's part of the reason I opposed free trade deals, because a lot of the US-EU free trade deals allowed the US's lower standards to be applicable in my nation. No thanks you.

 

May confirmed we are probably leaving the single market in exchange for border controls. Which is realistic, but irritating.

Well it would lower costs, might not seem that important to you, but for the poor fucks selling fish up in NI or Scottland it would be a blessing. Also lower banking regulations would help London. It's not like the US has people dying all the time due to bad product, if anything our rules are too strict as they stand.

 

Oh well, might as well start buying Ford and GM :3

[Aerion Brightflame]

Well it would lower costs, might not seem that important to you, but for the poor f***s selling fish up in NI or Scottland it would be a blessing. Also lower banking regulations would help London. It's not like the US has people dying all the time due to bad product, if anything our rules are too strict as they stand.

 

Oh well, might as well start buying Ford and GM :3

 

The UK already had lower banking regulations than the EU did. It's why it was the financial cpaital of the world, it has a tonne of old loopholes and such that stayed in place under EU law that made it

 

Yes, farmers and fishermen probably will benefit from the lack of restrictions. Even if most of the fisherman restrictions were put in place to prevent overfishing, which was about sustaintability I.E. you made less profit short term, but instead you kept a job in the long term.

 

I understand that the removal of regulations will lower costs. I just don't care because the regulations are usually put in place with good intentions that are designed to be the best for the people. It might urn out that we have to abide by these regulations anyway to trade in the EU (Because I believe that's the case in Norway), which we are still going to do, so the 'saving costs' argument becomes mostly a mute point.

 

We already have Ford and GM in Britain, but people still buy German, or Japanese, or other non US cars because an awful lot of US cars are unsuitable for UK roads or worse quality that the cars made in Europe. The German abassador actually made this point to Trump the other day; When asked 'How will you make sure that people still buy German cars over American' he replied 'We will make better cars'. If the US can't offer suitable quality, it can't compete. And it generally can't.

[Aerion Brightflame]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38723261

 

UK Supreme Court rules that parliament must sign off on Brexit plans before article 50 can be enacted. It also ruled that the devolved governments of the nation (That is the Welsh, Northern Irish, and Scottish parliaments) are not needed to be consulted before the article is enacted, preventing the heavily remain Scotland from blocking the vote.

 

Thank f*** for that decision.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38723261

 

UK Supreme Court rules that parliament must sign off on Brexit plans before article 50 can be enacted. It also ruled that the devolved governments of the nation (That is the Welsh, Northern Irish, and Scottish parliaments) are not needed to be consulted before the article is enacted, preventing the heavily remain Scotland from blocking the vote.

 

Thank f*** for that decision.

Think we'll still get a hard brexit and leave the Single Market

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

MPs vote 498 to 114 to approve the Second Reading of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-britain-eu-idUSKBN15G4S7?il=0

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-article-idUSKBN15G4CK

 

It's done

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

And UK parliament gives PM May power to trigger Brexit

 

 

So looks like they'll meet the march 1st goal

[Aerion Brightflame]

It still has to pass through the House of Lords; It's entirely possible it may be delayed by the House of Lords sending the bill back into Commons.

 

It's only about halfway there at the moment.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

UK manufacturers enjoy post-Brexit surge in orders

 

Basic Economics really, pound drops in value, exporters benefit. New tantalizing US trade deal; manufacturers do better

[Aerion Brightflame]

You read the part where it said that manufactoring only makes up about 10% of the UK's economy right?

 

If I've ever refuted the idea that our exports will benefit, I shouldn't have. As far as I'm aware, I've always stood by the fact that we are not a net exporter, and thus a weaker pound causes many problems on top of any benefits. But positive economic news is always a good thing.

 

And I still don't feel like it's a justification of the decision because we are talking about rewriting over 20 years worth of treaties and such here. The decision will not be justified until either a) we see a collapse of the EU post withdrawl, or we actually withdrawl and do well. Until then, it remains speculation.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

You read the part where it said that manufactoring only makes up about 10% of the UK's economy right?

 

If I've ever refuted the idea that our exports will benefit, I shouldn't have. As far as I'm aware, I've always stood by the fact that we are not a net exporter, and thus a weaker pound causes many problems on top of any benefits. But positive economic news is always a good thing.

 

And I still don't feel like it's a justification of the decision because we are talking about rewriting over 20 years worth of treaties and such here. The decision will not be justified until either a) we see a collapse of the EU post withdrawl, or we actually withdrawl and do well. Until then, it remains speculation.

I'm aware, but you also realize that imports weaken your national GDP right?

 

My expansion on your admission, is that, exports are how England can grow. That and the banking center of London.

 

EU collapse depends on Frexit and how much of an impact Nexit will be. But given that it took the UK in addition to the rest of the EU to compete with the US on an economic scale, not entirely sure why the UK would prefer to be with the weakening, faltering, regulation ridden, bloated mess.

 

Treaties should be re-visited after 20 years, that's a trend we've seen world wide with the failure of NAFTA in the US, and the EU in Europe

 

---

 

Turns out you were right and the HoL did what HoC wouldn't

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-article-idUSKBN16E2IJ

[Aerion Brightflame]

It doesn't matter if they weaken our GDP, we need imports. Too many things we commonly use or desire require imports; Including parts for the sheet we do export. Simply because it's cheaper to get those parts or materials and such outside of the UK than to demand them to be made in the UK because of wage differences. It's like the Mac book pro in the US I think? Apple said they were going to make at least one line of products be made in the US, and the increase labour costs almost doubled the price of the range.

 

The banking centre of London relies entirely on how well we negotiate in Brexit. If we don't get the right financial freedoms, London dies as the financial capital of the world, because even with the many historic loopholes we have it just becomes harder/more expensive to trade there. It's part of the reason so many banks have threatened to relocate to the mainland.

 

Whilst I don't want to get into another argument about whether it was smart to leave or not, I think you outlined one of the reasons we could have stayed; I.E. that being so close to all these other EU nations gave us massive economic power and allowed us to compete with China and the US.

 

I don't doub they should be revisted, it's just we are talking about probabaly hundreds of treaties with dozens of nations that will require to approval of every nation to work through. It's a beaurocratic nightmare. And working through all that in 2 years will be insanely difficult.

 

And I'm glad the House of Lords stepped in; The governments bill said literally nothing about the rights of EU citizens in the UK. And there's no way the EU would give fair rights to UK citzens in the EU unless we were willing to treat EU citzens here fairly. Not having at least some provision about it was shortsighted.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://apnews.com/95e08dacef304b1f80c7face092fd9b9?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

 

A50 is passed

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/breaking-theresa-may-make-statement-downing-street-1115am1/

 

WOW

[Delibirb]

Dont understand all these English political labels, but this sounds really off on several levels.

[Dad]

Should've just merged this with the other thread.

[~British Soul~]

I'm not a politically minded person, nor will I ever be, but I'm having mixed feelings regarding this. I mean she was reluctant to call a snap election despite saying she wouldn't last year.

[~~~~]

Holy sheet this is massive. A rather large gambit on May's part, really hoping it doesn't work out for her. I depend on the NHS to pay for my life saving medicines, and the Tories being in power threatens that.

[Aerion Brightflame]

I don't think it's a gabit at all. Unless something goes disaterously wrong, Tories will just get a bigger majority. The traditional opposition Labour are helmed by Jeremy Corbyn, probably the most unelectable man in the nation (Unfortunately, he really doesn't deserve it), UKIP are largely superflous now and didn't have much of a focused role anyway, and the Lib Dems have been irrelevant for a decade.

 

Calling it now seems low risk, high reward to me unless the Tories completely screw something up. Or someone else pulls something out of nowhere. Because currently May has like a 20 point lead in polls over Corbyn.

 

My prediction for this is that SNP sweeps Scotland, and Tories eat into a lot of Labour seats. Leaving us with a clear Tory majority instead of like the 17 seat majority they have now. Which means the Tory vision of the Brexit negotiation becomes more certain.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

I don't think it's a gabit at all. Unless something goes disaterously wrong, Tories will just get a bigger majority. The traditional opposition Labour are helmed by Jeremy Corbyn, probably the most unelectable man in the nation (Unfortunately, he really doesn't deserve it), UKIP are largely superflous now and didn't have much of a focused role anyway, and the Lib Dems have been irrelevant for a decade.

 

Calling it now seems low risk, high reward to me unless the Tories completely screw something up. Or someone else pulls something out of nowhere. Because currently May has like a 20 point lead in polls over Corbyn.

 

My prediction for this is that SNP sweeps Scotland, and Tories eat into a lot of Labour seats. Leaving us with a clear Tory majority instead of like the 17 seat majority they have now. Which means the Tory vision of the Brexit negotiation becomes more certain.

Any chance of Tory eating into SNP margins in scotland

[Aerion Brightflame]

I doubt it. Scotland has never been Tory country, and given that they overhwlemingly voted to stay in the EU I don't see why they would back the party pushing for them to leave. More likely SNP just sweeps every seat in Scotland,rather than just 56 of 59.

 

Obviously there's a chance, I don't know that much about the specifics, I'm just speculating.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

I doubt it. Scotland has never been Tory country, and given that they overhwlemingly voted to stay in the EU I don't see why they would back the party pushing for them to leave. More likely SNP just sweeps every seat in Scotland,rather than just 56 of 59.

 

Obviously there's a chance, I don't know that much about the specifics, I'm just speculating.

"Davidson believes that growing Tory support and the attractions of vote-switching makes it a strong possibility that the party will take several seats from the SNP in the Borders, regain East Renfrewshire – once a Tory stronghold – and compete hard for seats where there is strong support for Brexit in north-east Scotland"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/tory-and-snp-positions-in-scotland-suggest-surge-in-tactical-voting

[Aerion Brightflame]

She's the Scottish Tory leader, of course she's going to big up her party's chances. The same as Corbyn is bigging up Labours chances despite the evidence, same as Farron for the Lib Dems, same as UKIP guy for UKIP. Like that article even says that the SNP have a 20 point lead over the Tories.

 

It's possible of course they will pull some seats out of it, but Scotlands general voting trends make me doubt it.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

She's the Scottish Tory leader, of course she's going to big up her party's chances. The same as Corbyn is bigging up Labours chances despite the evidence, same as Farron for the Lib Dems, same as UKIP guy for UKIP. Like that article even says that the SNP have a 20 point lead over the Tories.

 

It's possible of course they will pull some seats out of it, but Scotlands general voting trends make me doubt it.

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

 

SNP: 43% (-7)

CON: 28% (+13)

LAB: 18% (-6)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

 

(via Survation / chgs with GE2015)

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

She's the Scottish Tory leader, of course she's going to big up her party's chances. The same as Corbyn is bigging up Labours chances despite the evidence, same as Farron for the Lib Dems, same as UKIP guy for UKIP. Like that article even says that the SNP have a 20 point lead over the Tories.

 

It's possible of course they will pull some seats out of it, but Scotlands general voting trends make me doubt it.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN17O0PT?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=58fc360104d30158622db910&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

More polls show them taking SNP seats.

 

 

According to an analysis for the Times, the Conservatives are on course to win 12 seats in Scotland while Labour will be wiped out from its former political stronghold. Currently, the Conservatives hold only one of Scotland's 59 seats in the British parliament. The SNP holds 54.

 

NI is exempt I'm assuming?

[Nathanael D. Striker]

So, we had some interesting developments with Brexit.

 

https://www.apnews.com/5aec0aa11a15440da182cf6bd225abf1

 

May managed to negotiate a deal with the EU over Brexit, but postponed the vote due to it facing a devistating defeat. This lead to...

 

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/12/tory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live?usqp=mq331AQHCAFYAYABAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2018%2Fdec%2F12%2Ftory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live

 

...May facing a no-confidence vote from within her own party, which she managed to win. If she hadn't, the odds if a no-deal Brexit would increase as she would be pressured to resign as PM.

 

That's where Brexit stands ATM.