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Number 7: Lucky Straight


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300px-Number7LuckyStraight-SP14-EN-C-1E.

Level 7 monsters
You can detach 1 Xyz Material from this card; roll a six-sided die twice and this card's ATK becomes the larger number rolled × 700 until your opponent's next End Phase, then if the total roll was exactly 7, apply 1 of these effects.
● Send all other cards on the field to the Graveyard.
● Special Summon 1 monster from your hand or from either Graveyard.
● Draw 3 cards, then discard 2 cards.

 

Inarguably the best boss monster to bring out in any game. Made even better when you have Gagaga Magician and 2 Level 4s out and they're expecting Ptolemys or some other such good card and you Galaxy Queen's Light your way into the combined CED, Monster Reborn and Graceful Charity that is this card. 

 

[spoiler=And it wins games too]OnapSbt.png

 

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After calculating, you have 20% chance to get the effect off. Way too little.

 

Isn't it 1 in 6? There are 36 possibilities when rolling two dice, 6 of which total 7 (2(6+1) + 2(5+2) + 2(4+3)). 1 in 6 is a 16.67% chance, which is even worse, so it enhances your point. Though, two dice making a sum total of 7 is the most likely outcome, so there is that, I suppose. Anyway, I'm just rambling on and being pedantic now.

 

Cards that rely solely on luck generally aren't good and this is really just a glorified Time Wizard that's not worth the summoning requirement.

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Isn't it 1 in 6? There are 36 possibilities when rolling two dice, 6 of which total 7 (2(6+1) + 2(5+2) + 2(4+3)). 1 in 6 is a 16.67% chance, which is even worse, so it enhances your point. Though, two dice making a sum total of 7 is the most likely outcome, so there is that, I suppose. Anyway, I'm just rambling on and being pedantic now.

 

Cards that rely solely on luck generally aren't good and this is really just a glorified Time Wizard that's not worth the summoning requirement.

 

Do not forget that you have 3 shots, so you have to take the chance that you fail all three times (so 5/6^3), which equals about 57,87%, so your chance for a success is about 42,12 ...%.

Still having less than a 50% chance would turn this card (even if you would win the game each time you win) into a card, which cannot get you what you want in even half the cases, so you would lose most imes in which you indeed get to summon this card.

If we also take into acount that we would get 4.2k in 11 different cases we know the odds of getting to 4.2k for our investment would be (100-25/36^3)% = about 66,51%, which is slightly higher, but still not worth the investment.

The combined chances (so the chances to get either/both) would be (100-x/36^3)%, in which x would be the the amount of results we would not get either a six in the first or second roll, nor get a combined 7 (as 11/36 + (6-2)/36 would show the chances of both we have to take the remaining (21/36)).

(100-21/36^3)% equals about 80,15%, so we have a chance of more than 80% to get at least one of the two options ... assuming the second would be worth it, but it shows that you will often get at least something, too bad that the investment is far too big for the second chance (oh what a magnificent sight it was to see this in dragon rulers).

 

11   12   13   14   15   16

21   22   23   24   25   26

31   32   33   34   35   36

41   42   43   44   45   46

51   52   53   54   55   56

61   62   63   64   65   66

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Oh yeah, it's not once per turn. I suppose that makes it quite a bit better. Still probably not worth the investment though, since you're putting probably most of your resources into a gamble that isn't even in your favour. The only thing that would make it worth while is rolling 7, which is, as you say, about 42%, which isn't enough.

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>Send all other cards on the field to the graveyard

Okay so you are then left with a beater. Card is still luck dependant but it not being OPT is a nice boon.

 

If you can do that first time it's worth having another 2 goes at it to see if you can Reborn another monster or two. It's a really fun card.

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50%, actually.

Precisely, it is reduced to a coin toss and each of the two first results has another side, so each of the 50% chances has a 50% of working, so 2 25% chances.

EDIT: forgot it applied on only 1 roll and that you can choose afterwards, rather than have to use this before even rolling.

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Sometimes I wish this required 2 materials so it would be more playable, but then it would only get 2 dice tries... not sure if that would be for the better.

Or if it was an OPT detach effect but carried other effects that made it more reliable, while having the same the roll-7 effect as a random but overly strong bonus.

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