Aerion Brightflame Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 I think Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning a majority. But I don't think his plan has been that for a long time, instead to make sure Trump doesn't get a majority, and then take things to convention where Trump will undoubtedly get passed over. The issue is a) That fractures the party b) they are just as likely to pass over Cruz c) Trump could actually win before that's even a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 Not sure how exactly the delegate split works, but I figure it's time for some more number crunching. If Cruz loses just another 56 delegates, it's going to become impossible for him to win here. That's entirely possible with next week, where 118 delegates are at stake across five states. Trump needs 392. Still hoping that it becomes impossible for Cruz to win, but also that Trump doesn't get enough. Best-case scenario is that next week is an even split, where Cruz would run out out, and though Trump wins, it wouldn't be enough, so he wouldn't win just yet. Trump needs 53% of the remaining delegates. Two weeks ago I had said Trump needed 67%, and that I would hope Clinton doesn't make it to 2000 this month. Well… Trump's percentage decreased, and Clinton has a very good chance of reaching 2000, maybe even 2100 after next week. Suffice it to say, this situation is the exact opposite of what I wanted. Problem with your analysis: You are counting Superdelegates when they aren't bound to anyone until July; therefore, they shouldn't count until then. For the sake of argument, keep the count to pledged delegates please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Roxas Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 I think Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning a majority. But I don't think his plan has been that for a long time, instead to make sure Trump doesn't get a majority, and then take things to convention where Trump will undoubtedly get passed over. The issue is a) That fractures the party b) they are just as likely to pass over Cruz c) Trump could actually win before that's even a possibility. I figure he's been trying to stop Trump from getting a majority, so not surprised. A) I don't think they realize how that would fracture the party.B) Agreed, but even Kasich is banking on this, when he would be even more likely to get passed over.C) That's why I noted how much Trump still needs to win. I'm hoping he doesn't, and California could make or break his chances, but I think he could also get really close before then that he may as well have won. Problem with your analysis: You are counting Superdelegates when they aren't bound to anyone until July; therefore, they shouldn't count until then. For the sake of argument, keep the count to pledged delegates please. For Clinton and Sanders, yeah, so I apologize for my mistake there. However, from what I can tell, that's a turning point only for the Democratic party, unlike with the Republican party. Admittedly, I'm going by Google's numbers, which doesn't list Delegates and Superdelegates separately for the GOP as they do for the Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goose Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Anyone who thinks calling the primary for trump instantly wasn't reasonable does not understand statistics and polling. The guy had an incredible lead in exit polls and polls before the election. The chance that they were wrong is effectively zero. What i think is most interesting about the Dem race ATM is that Sanders has received way more delegates than his vote share has earned him. He has something like 46% of delegates but only 42% of the popular vote thus far. Even if he edged Clinton out slightly in delegate count, it's totally reasonable for superdelegates to use their power to actually allow the peoples choice to win. Food for thought at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 What i think is most interesting about the Dem race ATM is that Sanders has received way more delegates than his vote share has earned him. He has something like 46% of delegates but only 42% of the popular vote thus far. Even if he edged Clinton out slightly in delegate count, it's totally reasonable for superdelegates to use their power to actually allow the peoples choice to win. Food for thought at least.IIRC, Caucus states don't release popular vote totals and a fair amount of Sanders' victories come from Caucus states, so your point is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/21/donald-trump-says-transgender-people-should-use-the-bathroom-they-want/ Interesting Development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goose Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Caucus states do reveal totals so my point isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Caucus states do reveal totals so my point isnthttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html Take a look at the blanks. Do you know what kind of states they are? Caucus States. So please, try again.http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/21/donald-trump-says-transgender-people-should-use-the-bathroom-they-want/ Interesting DevelopmentOh hey, the Trump's predicted leftward swing is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html Take a look at the blanks. Do you know what kind of states they are? Caucus States. So please, try again. Oh hey, the Trump's predicted leftward swing is happening.Outflank Hillary on the left and snag the discontent Bernie Bros, vilify the Establishment enough to get the Trumpsters to follow you regardless It's brilliant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Outflank Hillary on the left and snag the discontent Bernie Bros, vilify the Establishment enough to get the Trumpsters to follow you regardless It's brilliantDidn't you see this coming months ago? I want to say I kinda expected this since he used to be a Democrat, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Didn't you see this coming months ago? I want to say I kinda expected this since he used to be a Democrat, but...It's funny cause it's working. Despite Cruz attacking Trump for the support towards Transgenered people, the Trumpsters have overwhelmingly been supporting Donald despite it being a complete policy shift for them Hills could genuinly lose this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aerion Brightflame Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 Outflank Hillary on the left and snag the discontent Bernie Bros, vilify the Establishment enough to get the Trumpsters to follow you regardless It's brilliant It's not brilliant, it's been his expected ploy from the off. Just like Hilary, as soon as she's won the nomination would swing him message to the centre to grab as many of the independants as she possible could. It's pretty standard politics. Hell, I think I've called the idea that Trump will go back to the centre once he wins the nomination multiple times in the thread. If Trump didn't swing towards the centre I would be more surprised, because it would be tantamount to campaign suicide given his bad word of mouth from non supporters. Don't confuse brilliance with standard political strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 21, 2016 Report Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's not brilliant, it's been his expected ploy from the off. Just like Hilary, as soon as she's won the nomination would swing him message to the centre to grab as many of the independants as she possible could. It's pretty standard politics. Hell, I think I've called the idea that Trump will go back to the centre once he wins the nomination multiple times in the thread. If Trump didn't swing towards the centre I would be more surprised, because it would be tantamount to campaign suicide given his bad word of mouth from non supporters. Don't confuse brilliance with standard political strategy. See I think what Trump's doing is a little different. Normally going to the center is extending from your base and grabbing independent. What I think Trump is doing is boxing Hillary in from both sides. Snag far left ideologists and grab independents. You don't see that often is the brilliance in Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/20/donald-trump-overwhelmingly-wins-hispanic-vote-nyc/ I'm thrilled...but what the funk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/20/donald-trump-overwhelmingly-wins-hispanic-vote-nyc/ I'm thrilled...but what the f***interesting note, as pointed out in the comments below the article is that it's only the republican hispanics that are voting on trump atm. the democratic hispanics are likely to favor Hillary and possibly Bernie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 interesting note, as pointed out in the comments below the article is that it's only the republican hispanics that are voting on trump atm. the democratic hispanics are likely to favor Hillary and possibly Bernie..Oh for sure, but Trump shouldn't have won even the Republican Hispanics. I'm wondering if there is a connection between Legal Immigrants and the right as the comments suggest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mido9 Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 Oh for sure, but Trump shouldn't have won even the Republican Hispanics. I'm wondering if there is a connection between Legal Immigrants and the right as the comments suggestI mean, all things considered having so many immigrants must scrunch down wages pretty hard, lots of supply = low costs etc. George Borjaz's report showed that the influx of illegal immigrants reduced wages on avg by 5% for hispanic workers and 4% for blacks. http://cis.org/articles/2004/back504.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aerion Brightflame Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/21/hillary-pac-spends-1-million-to-correct-commenters-on-reddit-and-facebook.html This is an amusing story. I completely understand why Hillary would have something like this in place (To undermine Bernie's online support from within, and just in general), but it's still amusing when you think about people making the argument of 'falling in line behind Hillary' inspite of actions like this. Like it's almost Orwellian nowadays. Oh and Bill did someone equally short sighted: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-clinton-blames-millennials_us_57191d13e4b0d0042da88c9f Ignoring the fact that the Democrats made no real effort to get the voter base motivated for the 2010 elections, and that a large chunk of the Millenials hadn't had the option to get involved with politics then. And what does he do? Attempt to isolate one of the most important upcoming voter groups (Who will become more and more prevalent) who they already have issues with in the primary alone. Just funk the Clinton's honestly. Whilst I'm sure Clinton's policies would be decent, her and Bill's general behaviour and position within the current establishment are just saddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cr47t Posted April 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 I figure he's been trying to stop Trump from getting a majority, so not surprised. A) I don't think they realize how that would fracture the party.B) Agreed, but even Kasich is banking on this, when he would be even more likely to get passed over.C) That's why I noted how much Trump still needs to win. I'm hoping he doesn't, and California could make or break his chances, but I think he could also get really close before then that he may as well have won. For Clinton and Sanders, yeah, so I apologize for my mistake there. However, from what I can tell, that's a turning point only for the Democratic party, unlike with the Republican party. Admittedly, I'm going by Google's numbers, which doesn't list Delegates and Superdelegates separately for the GOP as they do for the Democrats.TIL Kasich won in Mahattan tho.Also does the GOP have superdelegates? I forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Roxas Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 The GOP does have superdelegates, but I don't think they're anywhere near as important in the primaries as Democratic superdelegates are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 The GOP does have superdelegates, but I don't think they're anywhere near as important in the primaries as Democratic superdelegates are. They have 150 Superdelegates (3 per state) compared to 719 Superdelegates for the Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goose Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 Of course each delegate has double the influence in the republican primary so it's the equivalent of 300 dem delegates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goose Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html Take a look at the blanks. Do you know what kind of states they are? Caucus States. So please, try again. Oh hey, the Trump's predicted leftward swing is happening.Because God forbid we take a source that did the simple math to give a very good approximation https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/06/is-hillary-clinton-really-ahead-of-bernie-sanders-by-2-5-million-votes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 Because God forbid we take a source that did the simple math to give a very good approximation https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/06/is-hillary-clinton-really-ahead-of-bernie-sanders-by-2-5-million-votes/Sorry mate, estimates aren't going to work here as they aren't official counts. Be you can please be so kind as to get the official numbers, that'd be good. Otherwise, good day sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 Sorry mate, estimates aren't going to work here as they aren't official counts. Be you can please be so kind as to get the official numbers, that'd be good. Otherwise, good day sir.No but they give a reasonable indication that Hillary is indeed ahead Ya'll can keep smoking the pipe dream of Sanders winning this, but it's implausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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