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Ryusei the Morning Star

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If biden wins fairly then fine. but i need to see where these ballots came from that flipped biden from -100k to +10k in under 10 minutes in 2 swing states at 4:30 am this morning after they claimed they were done counting for the night. 138k votes all for biden, a 100% voteing rate in two separate swing states in under 10 minutes with not even a third party addition. There is something hella off about this election, and i get the feeling it's gonna be a rather long fight to get it all revealed before either side comes out on top.

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Not to this extent. this was a 100K+ swing for two states entirely in the opposite direction they were heading, with not even a single vote for anybody else. that does not happen. there wasn't even 1 trump vote in that streak, not even a third party vote. that's not normal. a 70% or 80% majority shift? ok, but this was a clean 100K+ bump streak, with zero opposing votes. that has never happened in any election ever. especially not at 4:30 am after the voting had stopped for nearly 5 hours.

hell, stopping the vote count early in the first place, and sending everyone home (in a swing state no less) is suspect in and of itself.

Yes, i'd be saying this regardless of who it benefited. this is beyond an unnatural voting ratio.

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Wasn't Trump demanding that states should stop counting the vote? In just the time it work me to write this post, he sued Georgia, asking them to pause counting votes. Georgia is a state that he's winning, though admittedly by the lowest margin compared to Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Why would Trump want a state that he's winning to stop counting votes? And that's after he's already filed lawsuits against Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Jo Jorgensen got the extent of the votes she was going to get. I think during the middle of 2016, you would at least hear about Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. I legitimately had to check who the Green Party's candidate was, and it looks like Howie Hawkins got embarrassingly few votes. People absolutely resented people who either sat out of the vote, or voted for third party candidates, so I'm willing to believe that people were likely not going to risk doing either.

If Trump was trying to stifle the election, and the votes that he personally tried to slow down happened to be ones that go for Biden… yeah, Biden's not the one I'm going to be suspicious of here. It's possible that Trump tried to slow down votes that would benefit Biden, only for that effort to fail.

Biden just has to win one more state. I'm expecting it to be Nevada, though I'm willing to raise my expectations for Georgia and Pennsylvania, if only just a little bit.

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3 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

Wasn't Trump demanding that states should stop counting the vote? In just the time it work me to write this post, he sued Georgia, asking them to pause counting votes. Georgia is a state that he's winning, though admittedly by the lowest margin compared to Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Why would Trump want a state that he's winning to stop counting votes? And that's after he's already filed lawsuits against Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Jo Jorgensen got the extent of the votes she was going to get. I think during the middle of 2016, you would at least hear about Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. I legitimately had to check who the Green Party's candidate was, and it looks like Howie Hawkins got embarrassingly few votes. People absolutely resented people who either sat out of the vote, or voted for third party candidates, so I'm willing to believe that people were likely not going to risk doing either.

If Trump was trying to stifle the election, and the votes that he personally tried to slow down happened to be ones that go for Biden… yeah, Biden's not the one I'm going to be suspicious of here. It's possible that Trump tried to slow down votes that would benefit Biden, only for that effort to fail.

Biden just has to win one more state. I'm expecting it to be Nevada, though I'm willing to raise my expectations for Georgia and Pennsylvania, if only just a little bit.

He is demanding a freeze on suspicion of fraud, and is looking to go after all the states that froze their count in the middle of the night, and burst into action after the observers went home. he is looking to put all registers on blast, if he was the responsible party, how could he houdini that in a blue run state?

It's not about them getting a larger share, but the fact that at least two states both got over 110k votes all at once to a single candidate, to flip the entire state at the exact same time. Regardless of party, this is a statistical impossibility. All the more when it occurs within 10 minutes in both states, all at once.

 

"If Trump was trying to stifle the election, and the votes that he personally tried to slow down happened to be ones that go for Biden… yeah, Biden's not the one I'm going to be suspicious of here. It's possible that Trump tried to slow down votes that would benefit Biden, only for that effort to fail."

Before i make the main comment, how does this even work? These jumps were not in red led states, but in the blue led ones. Trump has no control over what even red states do on election night. Unless you are making an argument that a single comment of a speech held the weight of an executive order? (side note, i am not blaming biden himself on this potential fraud, but am looking at the districts/states themselves with scrutiny over this.)

 

Now as far as your comment, flip that statement. Let's say trump was behind biden by 100k in two red states, and those states stopped counting before even finishing. Then, hours after all of bidens observers were told to leave, they whip ahead from a 100k deficit to a 10k lead in literal minutes simultaneously with not a single biden vote (just assume it's an in person version if you see the mail in voting angle as a nitpick). Would you really just say that trump got it fairly? I'd hope not, because i'd be next to you with a pitchfork calling for a recount and investigation. I would put all related cheaters on a cross for some shit like that. The states that pulled this were all blue though. Why would they listen to anything trump says instead of just blasting him for cheating on the spot? If you wouldn't justify the reversed scenario, in what universe would you justify the former?

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Yeah, I'm not ruling out North Carolina either. Right now, I'm expecting the worst, but hoping for the best. It's just good that Biden is so close to winning that I'm not too worried.

I'll admit that this is rather silly, but I'm basing my expectations for the remaining states on whether or not Trump sues them. Suing Georgia and Pennsylvania may be entirely unnecessary, but I have to wonder if he's worried that either of them might flip for Biden.

Anyway, looks like it's vla1ne's turn to get his argument debunked.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/nov/04/fact-checking-avalanche-wisconsin-election-misinfo/

Hate to sound like a break record here, but I guess I have to: Republicans are spreading misinformation to arouse suspicion over perfectly legal processes, just to cast doubt on Biden getting legitimate votes. And once again, Winter and vla1ne are falling for it.

39 minutes ago, vla1ne said:

Now as far as your comment, flip that statement. Let's say trump was behind biden by 100k in two red states, and those states stopped counting before even finishing. Then, hours after all of bidens observers were told to leave, they whip ahead from a 100k deficit to a 10k lead in literal minutes simultaneously with not a single biden vote (just assume it's an in person version if you see the mail in voting angle as a nitpick). Would you really just say that trump got it fairly? I'd hope not, because i'd be next to you with a pitchfork calling for a recount and investigation. I would put all related cheaters on a cross for some shit like that. The states that pulled this were all blue though. Why would they listen to anything trump says instead of just blasting him for cheating on the spot? If you wouldn't justify the reversed scenario, in what universe would you justify the former?

Juxtaposing one scenario against a hypothetical inverse really doesn't work when the normal scenario didn't happen either. We're not here to contrast two fictional circumstances.

EDIT:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions

Here, New York Times has a comprehensive chronicle of the misinformation so far. It includes the Arizona Sharpies and Michigan nonsense, and hopefully these should preemptively shut down any attempts to bring up additional misleading or false claims.

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somehow i think this belongs here...

anyways, this election will most likely have to be resolved in the courts since the margins in most swing states are too narrow and the idea of voter fraud is too prevalent (though not without warrant). We probably won't see a proper result until January or February so check with your local gov on whether your ballots been counted yet, and if it has, just try not to get too caught up with all the political nonsense. shits gonna get a bit messy but keeping yourself locked up in political feudal state will only serve to drive you nuts. 

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5 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

I didn't pay this much mind at first, but hearing more about this now. Let's head this off at the pass, shall we?

As I've been saying, the right is going to look at any excuse to claim there's fraud. For as much as they lament how the left have tried to call the 2016 illegitimate for one reason or another, I'm not exactly surprised that the right is preemptively latching onto any conspiracy as fast as possible to delegitimize any chance of Trump losing.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/facebook-posts/voting-machines-dont-read-ballots-filled-sharpies-/

https://arizonadailyindependent.com/sharpiegate-trending-on-as-maricopa-county-voters-report-cancelled-ballots/

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dppxx/republicans-try-to-discredit-arizonas-vote-with-unfounded-sharpiegate-conspiracy

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/technology/sharpies-ballots-arizona.html

Let me be plain, Winter. I am asking you to actually read through those articles. Throughout the years, when I've offered you evidence that refutes certain claims you've shared, you resorted to attacks and insults, rather than really addressing the articles in question. When confronted with these corrections, there's no real harm in saying "Oh, my mistake. I guess I misunderstood what was going on." I'm giving you the chance to say exactly that here.

The sharpies are considered legitimate writing utensils for filling out ballots. In fact, election officials from Maricopa County, which is the source of this controversy, released a video last month supporting the use of sharpies. The county is also taking precautions to ensure that these ballots would be counted. Near as I can tell, people are making erroneous assumptions that their ballots are being discounted, when in fact they will be counted. It's just that Republicans are trying to spin it into something more nefarious.

So no, there are no problems. It's just that Republicans are once again trying to pretend that something is a problem when it isn't. Don't fall for it. If Republicans want these votes to be illegitimate, but they have to invent excuses wholecloth to claim why that is the case, then there's a good chance that the election is legitimate, and Republicans are just being dishonest.

What? No, I want all the votes counted. I just hope that you don't get your ballot tossed cuz of Sharpie bleed through. Which for the most part seems to not be happening

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I... didn't doubt that you wanted all the votes counted? So I'm not sure what that first part was arguing against.

And yes, Sharpie bleed through isn't happening. That's because the problems that other have brought up simply aren't happening, or they're completely exaggerating.

We seem to agree that this isn't a real problem, so we can probably let that issue rest.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/arizona-election-live-updates-2020-presidential-election/6093637002/

Maricopa County, which is the center of this, has released a new batch of results. The gap has tightened, but Biden still leads.

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4 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

Anyway, looks like it's vla1ne's turn to get his argument debunked.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/nov/04/fact-checking-avalanche-wisconsin-election-misinfo/

Hate to sound like a break record here, but I guess I have to: Republicans are spreading misinformation to arouse suspicion overly perfectly legal processes, just to cast doubt on Biden getting legitimate votes. And once again, Winter and vla1ne are falling for it.

This one is gonna take a bit of time i suppose.

 

politifact has lied several times regarding the facts of the election, i don't take anything they say as fact, because they twist literally everything they can get away with when it comes to running narratives. But to put some substance on that claim, let's look at the parts they omit that destroy their whole narrative:


Your politifact article's first "takedown" failed to address the fact that republican observers literally got sent home before the votes were counted, (further proof below on this, and i have ample more in my back pocket) on the assumption that they were done counting for the night. we heard this report at 11 at night, why were they still counting after the observers left? They got called out on the 100k-0 jump, and then claimed it was an "error" afterwards, as they did with several callouts, like the "error" that called it 100% in arizona while missing several red districts. They then also say trump tweeted it at 9:00, but that begs the question, where was this correction from 4:30-9:00 if it hadn't been picked up properly? How exactly was this able to be reported without observers when in fact, they stated up front that they were going to stop counting long enough for observers to be sent home? It was public when they made the statement, so why exactly were they still counting in the first place without telling the vote observers that they weren't done yet? the mind change is the problem here. This happened in several states across the country, all blue states, and all of them using near identical strategy of hanging it up for the night, then hopping back into the action only after the republican observers are gone. keep in mind they refused to allow reentry for several observers if testimony is to be believed across philly, while we have evidence of them being turned away early on in one state (i believe that was philly again, the same one that pulled the I'm-going-to-bed-sike! maneuver to such great effect already.)

 

The second and third takedowns cannot be disproved without voter registry access, so i can't touch it as an argument without that ammo. We'll see in the lawsuit if trump follows through.

 

The fourth is an outright lie though. i was awake at the time, and watching the race in person. they literally announced they were going to stop counting for the night in several areas, and simply stopped reporting in for others with no explanation for hours on end. It is in fact the reason the republican observers left, because they stated they were done for the night. Notice how the actual "takedown" said literally nothing about them stopping, but appealed only to the improbability of election fraud? this is what politifact does, lie by omission. we have observers stating blatantly that they left because they were told that counting was done for the night, we have several streams showing the same for several states.

 

 

also, to tear apart the next likely link in the chain: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/facebook-posts/battleground-states-did-not-stop-counting-votes-el/

I decided to see what they said about it, and surprise, they lied by omission again: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/carminesabia/2020/11/04/philadelphia-will-halt-mail-in-vote-count-for-the-night-n1123879

politifact claims no states stopped counting, yet we have tweets clearly stating that they were done for the night that were summarily deleted after news got out, and several announcements changing the story as time passes. all it really takes is the first "good night", and that was when the republican observers were sent home, and then, with nobody observing (no, the members of the same party don't count for this), they continued counting till 1, and then kept going till morning, when they had clearly stated they were going to stop for the night. this is not the only one that did it, but it is the most blatant one to do so, as the water main break story had as similar slant to it, they were initially going to cancel the counts, and sent everyone home, and then decided to continue as well.

to expand upon that though, the excuse given was "we ran out of ballots to count so we stopped", but that begs the question, why didn't they report in when the new ballots came in? the update was at 4 in the morning, that leaves at least 3 hours between getting the new votes, and reporting on them. not a single news outlet mentioned the counting halt, as if it was normal, and not a single news outlets reached out to hear why they suddenly stopped reporting in several of these states. until the reports came in. I know, because i was watching three separate streams at a time, and not one of them said "these three states are still counting" until the votes came in, despite the lack of reporting in from all of said states.  in fact, two streams i had on initially stopped because the swing states stopped reporting in, and one of the officials straight up tweeted they were done for the night.

 

and to further show what i mean:

 

 

Democrats blatantly push democrat observers out, called several states for biden near instantly at under 10% of the vote, and yet refused to call states like florida and TEXAS even after trump was notably beyond biden. Republicans didn't cast the doubt, the states themselves did. and you don't even get to try claiming false info. you ran on the steele dossier for almost 2 years, and dropped it like you never met it once it got blasted by the facts. a week or two to verify a case that has leagues more weight behind it is a damn right for trump at this point.

And politifact has continued their trend of lying by omission, so nothing really new here.

 

4 hours ago, (GigaDrillBreaker) said:

That literally didn't happen.

https://archive.is/uudbQ

The election count has been a "typo" in several different busts last night. such as Arizona missing two red states, or philly's end of night speech at 10 pm. or either one of the two 100k hops that got "dialed back" to 10k. There were an incredible number of favorable typos and misunderstandings for biden don't you think?

 

 

 

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i'm fully calm, in fact, i haven't slept since yesterday tracking the election and working. i don't have the energy to be mad. i merely wanted to put politifake down like the false news source that it is. i can calmly go through several more politifact stories and show you what i mean again if you don't think they are liars yet.

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6 minutes ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said:

Odd, they made me toss my ballot in Iowa and re-do it cuz I used a gel pen

Legit can't tell if that's a joke or not, so not sure what the appropriate way to respond would be.

2 minutes ago, vla1ne said:

i'm fully calm, in fact, i haven't slept since yesterday, i don't have the energy to be mad. i merely wanted to put politifake down like the false news source that it is. i can calmly go through several more politifact stories and show you what i mean again if you don't think they are liars yet.

Dude, you should get some sleep, then. I know readjusting to standard time is hard, but wow.

You admitted to having a preexisting bias that's coloring your ability to accept the evidence. You're here to attack the source, and you failed to approach the substance of their article in good faith.

"Notice how the actual "takedown" said literally nothing about them stopping"

I mean, outside of this substantial part here:

"This is one of several viral claims that key states took a break from voting in some form on election night.

And it’s simply not true.

Election officials worked through the night in Wisconsin to tally the unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots, which under state law they were not allowed to start counting until Election Day.

"Our municipal and county clerks have worked tirelessly throughout the night to make sure that every valid ballot is counted and reported accurately," Meagan Wolfe, the director of the state Elections Commission, said in a news conference the morning after the election."

 

And just for this little nugget:

"and you don't even get to try claiming false info. you ran on the steele dossier for almost 2 years, and dropped it like you never met it once it got blasted by the facts."

God I love whataboutisms. They're so wonderfully useful for padding.

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1 minute ago, Phantom Roxas said:

The matter of Sharpies might be something specific to Arizona? So likely just that Iowa and Arizona have differing policies.

Maybe! I've heard the paint dries faster so the machine prefers it. But in Iowa it's all absentee. You can go vote in person early, etc. But you just get a ballot. So I assume they preferred that I just get a new ballot

 

Oh well, we shall see 🙂

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Yeah, one of the Arizona officials said they tried different kinds of pens, and found that Sharpies dried the fastest, and they did anticipate bleed through and minimized that.

Their next batch of results should be in about three hours. At the rate they're going, I expect that to be the final batch for Arizona, though I'll accept that there may be another batch or so after that one.

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3 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

Legit can't tell if that's a joke or not, so not sure what the appropriate way to respond would be.

Dude, you should get some sleep, then. I know readjusting to standard time is hard, but wow.

You admitted to having a preexisting bias that's coloring your ability to accept the evidence. You're here to attack the source, and you failed to approach the substance of their article in good faith.

"Notice how the actual "takedown" said literally nothing about them stopping"

I mean, outside of this substantial part here:

"This is one of several viral claims that key states took a break from voting in some form on election night.

And it’s simply not true.

Election officials worked through the night in Wisconsin to tally the unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots, which under state law they were not allowed to start counting until Election Day.

"Our municipal and county clerks have worked tirelessly throughout the night to make sure that every valid ballot is counted and reported accurately," Meagan Wolfe, the director of the state Elections Commission, said in a news conference the morning after the election."

 

And just for this little nugget:

"and you don't even get to try claiming false info. you ran on the steele dossier for almost 2 years, and dropped it like you never met it once it got blasted by the facts."

God I love whataboutisms. They're so wonderfully useful for padding.

"This is one of several viral claims that key states took a break from counting in some form on election night.

And it’s simply not true."

yeah, they lied, right there. i have already shown as much, and you either misread, or misunderstood their text. they literally state that they did not take a break the entire night: "Election officials worked through the night in Wisconsin to tally the unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots, which under state law they were not allowed to start counting until Election Day" despite information to the contrary coming from every republican observer who got tricked into leaving. if anything, this is ample reason for a recount at minimum.

 

That is what i mean by twist.Wwhen i said stopping, I explained that. I said that they said they were done for the night, which they did state, a literal official tweeted it out, and deleted said tweet after it gained traction, without bringing back any republican observers to watch them count. This would get any right winger rightfully crucified for fraud. and is quite similar to what they are doing in detroit. they clearly label the claim false. not part true, or half true (which you could argue for) but outright false. they lie in the opening act. (the meter they use in the article, to prove my point: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/facebook-posts/battleground-states-did-not-stop-counting-votes-el/ ) gliding right by the fact that at least one openly admitted to closing up shop for the night before proceeding, and all of them didn't continue until the republican observers were long gone that night, while also not updating the electorates till they were already done.

In other words, meagan lied her ass off. they stopped at least long enough for the observer republicans to leave, and if they really didn't stop all that long, why not call them back?

 

I addressed your own remark with a fact that you seem to have forgotten. It is not a whataboutism to point out that you spent two years on a fake dossier that you believe pertained to swaying an election, when you are trying to be cute about spending a few weeks tops on a case of potential national election fraud.

 

But thanks for the concern about my sleeping cycle, I'm probably liable to pass out soon.

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Alright, I'm going to try to keep this as brief as I possibly can, because the more you try to inflate this argument, the further away we get from the original point.

Still haven't shown it's a lie. And thanks for responding to my citation about them not taking breaks with... the exact same citation about them not taking breaks. You've got any sources on those observers claiming to have been "tricked"?

The other Politifact article you linked explicitly says that they reached out to the original poster for evidence, and didn't hear back. So you're trying to debunk an article by citing the screenshots that the writers explicitly tried to get evidence for, but did not receive. If an article says that certain claims have no evidence to back them up, then it's foolish to think that merely reiterating those very claims somehow refutes the article in question.

The Steele dossier has absolutely nothing to do with this argument. You know that. You're only bringing it up to try to make a personal attack.

UPDATE:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/ct-trump-protests-demand-michigan-vote-stop-count-20201105-co6n4u65yfg65a7xfyuvifk5ve-story.html

Armed Trump supporters are threatening poll workers in Maricopa and other counties, and preventing them from counting votes.

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11 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

Alright, I'm going to try to keep this as brief as I possibly can, because the more you try to inflate this argument, the further away we get from the original point.

Still haven't shown it's a lie. And thanks for responding to my citation about them not taking breaks with... the exact same citation about them not taking breaks. You've got any sources on those observers claiming to have been "tricked"?

The other Politifact article you linked explicitly says that they reached out to the original poster for evidence, and didn't hear back. So you're trying to debunk an article by citing the screenshots that the writers explicitly tried to get evidence for, but did not receive. If an article says that certain claims have no evidence to back them up, then it's foolish to think that merely reiterating those very claims somehow refutes the article in question.

The Steele dossier has absolutely nothing to do with this argument. You know that. You're only bringing it up to try to make a personal attack.

UPDATE:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/ct-trump-protests-demand-michigan-vote-stop-count-20201105-co6n4u65yfg65a7xfyuvifk5ve-story.html

Armed Trump supporters are threatening poll workers in Maricopa and other counties, and preventing them from counting votes.

 

are you ignoring the point on purpose? they stated they were done for the night, that is a fact. The observers left because of that claim and they stopped counting for at least long enough for the observers to leave in several states. that is a fact. and then they started back up, and regardless of what they claim to be clerical errors, did not even report a single vote until 4:30 in the morning. simultaneously, in two different states. that is a fact. i was watching the polls from 8 all the way to 6, there was zero movement or reporting from several states from 11 to 4:30. no word of starting up again, and no word of new ballots being counted. they didn't report a thing until they finished. for all intents and purposes to the outside world, they had stopped counting. then they burst forth with new results in the wee hours of the morning. are you really going to tell me that you find nothing about that suspect? that you would be perfectly fine if a red state did this?

 

in fact, before giga dropped that tweet, you were perfectly fine believing that a blue state had a 100K vote hop with zero increase for red or third party votes. blaming trump for some manner of suppression that he could not have committed. do you even have an angle here? i have already pointed out that the claim that they never stopped is a lie, they clearly stopped, they even say as much. that they stopped several times in the night for various reasons. and the observers have all reported they were told countng was done until the morning. they claim that they worked through the night, and yet they clearly stopped at least one time long enough for the observers to believe they were done. I will repeat it, as you seem to keep glossing right over the point: The claim that they worked all night is at least part lie, because they clearly stopped long enough for the observers to believe they were done.

You get it? this was a lie by omission on the part of politifact. They claimed the counters worked all night, yet they clearly stopped long enough to convince the observers to leave. I quoted the same bit you did to show you this, and you somehow completely missed the point.

 

straight up lie in that title. they conflated like five different marches as if it was all trump supporters, and even tried to justify antifa burning down portland (again). It's the same deal as detroit, they are playing games with the observers, and it needs to stop. they want the counting to stop because they are bringing in ballots from god knows where with who knows what dates on them, and they want more observers to ensure that they are still playing by the rules. live streaming doesn't mean they cover all blind spots.

compare videos. the first of the maricopa protests, and the second of the literal riots that saw cnn's glass windows destroyed:

 

 

the lies are real fam. the protestors in maricopa have done nothing but peacefully protest. not one bit of violence from the right, and yet the left literally blew out windows and attacked cops. they almost conflated the two in the article by putting the title as trump supporters, yet not mentioning that the new york and portland ones (at the very least) are not in any way manned by trump supporters. peaceful protests are in no way hazardous to the election. yet you can look at portland, and see that the left hasn't changed up their violent strats for 100+ days, and gets a near blank check in the media to be cashed in against the right when they use their right to protest.

 

And i like how they claim it's "getting rowdy" when they described literal riots over the past 100 days as "fiery, but mostly peaceful".

 

 

 

 

 

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