vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Enguin said: i only started paying attention the day of the election basically but there was repeated mention of the idea that due to mail-in ballots being counted after day-of votes, and the probability of a higher democratic representation in the former and republican in the latter that states would start out with trump ahead and then gradually biden catching and overtaking him, and that trump would use the sequence of events as a basis for claiming the election was being rigged and manipulated and have this as the grounds for his legal dispute of the result this was absolutely expected The issue isn't that biden caught up, but in how he did so. by the end of the day, trump was over 500K ahead and leading by nearly ten point margins in almost all swing states. the amount of votes that would have to go to biden for a dozen hour gap to close in under 5 hours, would have to be incredible, and the voting ratio is beyond even california insofar as how the votes are distributed overall. on top of this, we have seen glitches in several counties that have switched votes in ways that only favor gop candidates. as someone who watched the count from 6pm to 6am the next morning, i can tell you right now, at no point in history has an election ever had a complete 5 hour halt in voting across 3 states that all reported in at the same time, which is one of the reasons that the election as a whole is still under contest, as not looking into these anomalies would do neither party justice. besides, the final gap is under 20k (some only reached that low because trump disputed the results and they found errors ), which would mean he can request a recount regardless. As far as perjury, she is making testimony under oath. if she lies, jail time, and there are many people taking up the mantle to do so. she is signed in onto a legal document according to guliani, and is guaranteed to be testifying on call, along with many others who are making similar claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Enguin said: what exactly is it you think is going on with them, i have only read the last couple of pages and i'm not sure i have no context beyond the tweet alone which makes no mention of that, where is it you know this from So yeah, I expected them to be very democrat. Yes. As did everyone. Before the election, the Biden people said Trump would need like over a million vote lead to hold off the ballots. Fine. He got that. Then instead of ballots breaking 70-30, they suddenly started breaking 77-20, 80-10, 90-5, hell there were even 100-0 batches If this woman is lying, she's putting a lot of her years at risk being convicted of perjury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 please show me something other than your own statements that this is a sworn testimony or whatever because again i only have the tweet to go on and all that is is a screenshot of a word document that reads like fanfiction, i am genuinely confused now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said: So yeah, I expected them to be very democrat. Yes. As did everyone. Before the election, the Biden people said Trump would need like over a million vote lead to hold off the ballots. Fine. He got that. Then instead of ballots breaking 70-30, they suddenly started breaking 77-20, 80-10, 90-5, hell there were even 100-0 batches If this woman is lying, she's putting a lot of her years at risk being convicted of perjury the 100-0 batches got recalled as soon as they got called out by the right, but the rest is true enough. there are also allegations that the voting computers had internet, which would give rise to some real interesting arguments on who knows what. since the republican watchers were at best, 6 feet away, and in some cases, over 15 feet from the farthest table (and not allowed to interfere), them having internet (if proven) could put the whole facility to the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Enguin said: please show me something other than your own statements that this is a sworn testimony or whatever because again i only have the tweet to go on and all that is is a screenshot of a word document that reads like fanfiction, i am genuinely confused now https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/2020-11-09-complaint-as-filed.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, vla1ne said: https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/2020-11-09-complaint-as-filed.pdf i initially liked your post in a hasty act of gratitude that i must retract because this is a 105 page pdf and i ctrl + f'd several phrases from the tweet to find nothing, where is it within this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Enguin said: i initially liked your post in a hasty act of gratitude that i must retract because this is a 105 page pdf and i ctrl + f'd several phrases from the tweet to find nothing, where is it within this? my bad, there are several out right now. https://greatlakesjc.org/wp-content/uploads/Complaint-Costantino-FINAL-With-Exhibits.pdf?x44644 all you have to do is read the side of the page, go to the site, and download the complaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 thank you i officially upgrade it to named individual making unsubstantiated claims as reported by another person that came off a lot more snarky than intended, but it does read like someone's idea of what suspicious behaviour would be than how anyone trying to rig an election would act Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 There are many accounts like this from workers all night. all of whom are apparently planning to do so under oath. also, it may sound like that, but that doesn't mean it's any less worth investigating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 no obviously absolutely investigate it all but i wouldn't personally bank on this amounting to anything significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Enguin said: no obviously absolutely investigate it all but i wouldn't personally bank on this amounting to anything significant he's already cut down the michigan lead from 30k down to 1k just by following the bread crumbs. might as well keep going till he gets the whole loaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, vla1ne said: he's already cut down the michigan lead from 30k down to 1k just by following the bread crumbs. might as well keep going till he gets the whole loaf. this is just off google and then nbc had pretty much the same figure, where have you gotten this 30k to 1k thing or are you talking about something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 This is in Wayne County....it's pretty remarkable. Maybe just everyone turn out at historic rates, but it's a couple standard devs over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 over what? and yes this is the highest turnout ye've ever had for an election because this is the most polarising president going and people on both sides highly invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, Enguin said: this is just off google and then nbc had pretty much the same figure, where have you gotten this 30k to 1k thing or are you talking about something else my bad, wisconsin was the state, it's late an i'm slow at the moment. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/breaking-exclusive-system-glitch-also-uncovered-wisconsin-reversal-19032-votes-removes-lead-joe-biden/ point stands though. trump closed a lead in at least one state and is on track to overtake if the rate of error remains at the same level. If he knocks one or two more states out after that, it becomes a toss up, and the house will be the arbiter, which means trump takes it. if he really wants to be dirty, he can run it up to the supreme court and literally let karma play its' part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 google still has a 20k biden lead and i can't find any articles about the things claimed in this one anywhere else i contest the notion of this point standing this article literally only cites information from other articles on the same site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, Enguin said: over what? and yes this is the highest turnout ye've ever had for an election because this is the most polarising president going and people on both sides highly invested Over the norm. Just fyi, 68% of the variation is in the 1st standard dev, 95% by the 2nd, 99.7 by the third, etc Range Expected fraction of population inside range Approximate expected frequency outside range Approximate frequency for daily event μ ± 0.5σ 0.382924922548026 3 in 5 Four or five times a week μ ± σ 0.682689492137086 1 in 3 Twice a week μ ± 1.5σ 0.866385597462284 1 in 7 Weekly μ ± 2σ 0.954499736103642 1 in 22 Every three weeks μ ± 2.5σ 0.987580669348448 1 in 81 Quarterly μ ± 3σ 0.997300203936740 1 in 370 Yearly μ ± 3.5σ 0.999534741841929 1 in 2149 Every 6 years μ ± 4σ 0.999936657516334 1 in 15787 Every 43 years (twice in a lifetime) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Enguin said: google still has a 20k biden lead and i can't find any articles about the things claimed in this one anywhere else understandable, it likely hasn't kept up with the data. media barely reported on the climb back up, so not having the latest numbers isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, vla1ne said: understandable, it likely hasn't kept up with the data. media barely reported on the climb back up, so not having the latest numbers isn't surprising. or the article making claims that nobody else is even reporting on and which only cites its parent website as a source is not true 23 minutes ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said: Over the norm. Just fyi, 68% of the variation is in the 1st standard dev, 95% by the 2nd, 99.7 by the third, etc Range Expected fraction of population inside range Approximate expected frequency outside range Approximate frequency for daily event μ ± 0.5σ 0.382924922548026 3 in 5 Four or five times a week μ ± σ 0.682689492137086 1 in 3 Twice a week μ ± 1.5σ 0.866385597462284 1 in 7 Weekly μ ± 2σ 0.954499736103642 1 in 22 Every three weeks μ ± 2.5σ 0.987580669348448 1 in 81 Quarterly μ ± 3σ 0.997300203936740 1 in 370 Yearly μ ± 3.5σ 0.999534741841929 1 in 2149 Every 6 years μ ± 4σ 0.999936657516334 1 in 15787 Every 43 years (twice in a lifetime) i may be being small brain but what is the significance of this fact or this table of figures, yes the turnout was very high, is there another point you were looking to make by bringing it up or no? i feel like you've agreed with me but sideways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 that would imply they used 4 correct reports to make one false one, which is possible, but we're talking pure numbers, why waste credibility on something that easy to disprove? and like i said, trump's already been climbing back up. you don't have to believe it, but i advise not using google if you want anything resembling an honest search system. also, that news is almost fresh off the print, popped up around 9pm, so yeah, not being updated everywhere is not too surprising. side note, barr authorized feds to step into any substantial fraud allegations, so maybe we'll finally see some real results. trump's been keeping his cards rather close, but this one is a pretty big play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 karen's back. hell yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 42 minutes ago, Enguin said: or the article making claims that nobody else is even reporting on and which only cites its parent website as a source is not true i may be being small brain but what is the significance of this fact or this table of figures, yes the turnout was very high, is there another point you were looking to make by bringing it up or no? i feel like you've agreed with me but sideways The margins that turnout went up by are between 4.5 and 5 standard deviations, which would mean this is beyond a once per life time election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, vla1ne said: that would imply they used 4 correct reports to make one false one, which is possible, but we're talking pure numbers, why waste credibility on something that easy to disprove? and like i said, trump's already been climbing back up. you don't have to believe it, but i advise not using google if you want anything resembling an honest search system. also, that news is almost fresh off the print, popped up around 9pm, so yeah, not being updated everywhere is not too surprising. side note, barr authorized feds to step into any substantial fraud allegations, so maybe we'll finally see some real results. trump's been keeping his cards rather close, but this one is a pretty big play. alright well it's now 8 hours since this post and still no other news source has reported this and joe remains 20k ahead https://amp.jsonline.com/amp/6225417002 i know this is linking to an ugly mobile version of the article but it's 1 hour old and reaffirms the 20k lead while outlining all potential arguments for a recount that article is either not true or breaking a huge story that is being completely ignored by literally all other news outlets as far as i can see that site has absolutely zero credibility anyway it doesn't stand to lose any by making things up the article had 7300 shares on facebook when i last looked 8 hours ago, that's what they're trying to do, it's naive at absolute best to pretend they are putting their good name on the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enguin Enguin Enguin Enguin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said: The margins that turnout went up by are between 4.5 and 5 standard deviations, which would mean this is beyond a once per life time election genuinely is though like i would not expect ye to have a turnout anywhere near this level again because in 4 years and beyond i don't imagine anyone will be harkening back to the good old days of the president dividing the country into unprecedentedly polarised halves and ye'll slip back hopefully to being a somewhat normal country that doesn't elect memes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Roxas Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, vla1ne said: side note, barr authorized feds to step into any substantial fraud allegations, so maybe we'll finally see some real results. trump's been keeping his cards rather close, but this one is a pretty big play. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220 This move was audacious enough for Richard Pilger, the Election Crime Branch Director, to step down because it's a significant change in policy. At best, Barr will find some things that he will claim is evidence, but I don't expect it to hold up to scrutiny. I'm looking forward to Doug Jones replacing Barr, though that's mostly because it will be hilarious when he takes Jeff Sessions's old job twice. These lawsuits are a race against the certification deadlines. At least none of the states that are being certified today look like they won't face any lawsuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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